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FXUS61 KPHI 221517
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1117 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
CURRENTLY. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THRU ATTM AND SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. DAYTIME CU/SC WILL
FORM INLAND SHORTLY WITH HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TOO. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S MOST SPOTS. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO
20 MPH AT TIMES.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. QUIET NIGHT AHEAD
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S/LOW
50S AS WE TRANSITION INTO A TRANQUIL MID-WEEK PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MILD AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST THOUGH THE WEEK
EVENTUALLY CRESTING ON THURSDAY. WITH SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND WITH 60S ON THE COAST DUE TO THE 40 DEGREE SSTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RADIATE OUT TO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WE'LL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SWITCH FROM ZONAL FLOW TO SWINGING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN AREA OF PVA PUSHING INTO THE AREA
AND BE THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE WITH CURRENT CHANCES IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE
(60-70%).
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION AND WE'LL SEE THE RAIN TAPER OFF ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TOWARDS THE POCONOS AND
LEHIGH VALLEY WITH LOW 70S FOR THE I95 CORRIDOR AND THE REST OF
NJ. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE COOLER SST'S WILL KEEP A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS DOWN THE SHORE. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EXPECT FOR FRIDAY
MORNING WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY LIKELY FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON... VFR WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
SCT CU/SC AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS IN SOME SPOTS NEARING 20 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS, FAVORING A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR KRDG/KABE.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...MODERATE CHANCE (40-50%) OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH CHANCE (70%) OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AROUND 10-20 KT BECOMING NORTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SEAS 2-3 FEET UNDER FAIR WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...MODERATE CHANCE (40-50%) OF SCA AS SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARDS 4-5 FEET. SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ON
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TODAY, RHS WILL BE AROUND 30% WITH GUSTS
NEARING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES, THOUGH FUELS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH AND
SOME AREAS SEEING GREENUP ACCORDING TO OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. AS
A RESULT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STATEMENTS TO BE ISSUED TODAY.
RHS ARE A TOUCH LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. RHS RECOVER THIS WEEKEND, WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/PO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/HOEFLICH/PO
MARINE...DEAL/HOEFLICH
FIRE WEATHER...
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