078
FXUS61 KPHI 221839
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
239 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OUT OF CANADA, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT TO
SEA FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILD IN TONIGHT AND KEEPS
THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE NEW AIRMASS IS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS ONE SO LOW TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S FOR NW COUNTIES AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ELSEWHERE. FOR DELMARVA AND SE NJ LOWS WILL PROBABLY END UP
CLOSER TO 55. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH
THIS EVENING AND LESS THAN 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE MID
70S FOR METRO PHILADELPHIA AND SRN NJ. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER (60S) ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING BY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEAR THE ARE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP FAIR
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY, THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AS PWS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS, SOME PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INT SUNDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... GREAT VFR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH THE FEW DAYTIME CU,
WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY 23Z, AND JUST HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A COUPLE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS THRU ABOUT 23Z. AFTER THAT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS. BY DAWN,
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFID.
WEDNESDAY... VFR EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A SEA-BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FOR KACY BY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
IT'S BEEN A NICE DAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH AND LINGER NEAR 5 FEET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TODAY, RHS WILL BE AROUND 30%
WITH GUSTS NEARING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES, THOUGH FUELS REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH AND SOME AREAS SEEING GREENUP ACCORDING TO OUR FIRE
WEATHER PARTNERS. AS A RESULT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STATEMENTS TO
BE ISSUED TODAY.
RHS ARE A TOUCH LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT. RHS RECOVER THIS WEEKEND, WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...OHARA/ROBERTSON
MARINE...OHARA/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...
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