965
FXUS61 KPHI 222316
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
716 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 715 PM, PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR
AREA CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY, HOWEVER THESE WILL BE
DIMINISHING EVEN MORE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES CLOSER FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AS
THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST THUS FAR. A
LARGE WILDFIRE IS ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF OCEAN COUNTY, NJ AND
IT CONTINUES TO BE PICKED UP WELL ON OUR RADAR AS IT IS NOT THAT
FAR WEST OF THE FIRE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND KEEPS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NEW AIRMASS IS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS ONE SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S FOR NW COUNTIES AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ELSEWHERE. FOR DELMARVA AND SE NJ LOWS WILL PROBABLY END UP
CLOSER TO THE MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY, A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE MID 70S FOR
METRO PHILADELPHIA AND SRN NJ. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IS
EXPECTED AND A SEA BREEZE SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE INLAND SOME
TOWARD LATE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS TO MORE EAST TO SOUTHERLY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER (60S) ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING BY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEAR THE ARE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP FAIR
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY, THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AS PWS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS, SOME PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INT SUNDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MAY
SITES, THEN BECOME NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY... VFR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH. A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOPS AND SHOULD SHIFT
THE WINDS TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT KACY, KILG AND POSSIBLY MIV.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SEA AND BAY BREEZE
DEVELOPING DURING WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
WINDS SOME ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH AND LINGER NEAR 5 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REBOUND TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL
AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE A TOUCH LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED REGARDING RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE/OHARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GORSE/OHARA/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/OHARA/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...PHI
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