020
FXUS61 KPHI 251933
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OFFSHORE. A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WILL COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (GENERAL
TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 8 PM OR SO, WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT). OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AROUND, THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
AMOUNT TO ALL THAT MUCH. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE OF A SIGNAL TO HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. PATCHY TO LOCALIZED DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AS WELL.
THE MORNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAY BREAK
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ALL IN ALL, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE LULL IN ACTIVITY, PESKY CLOUD
COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SO SKIES SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST 12Z/HREF
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
JUST A BIT, WITH ~1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND ~25 KT OF BULK SHEAR
AVAILABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS OF COURSE DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TO SET THE STAGE ON HOW
MUCH THE AREA MAY DESTABILIZE. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE PARAMETERS AND
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS BY THE HRRR/ARW/RRFS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN CLUSTERS AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH NONE
OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC, DO BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS ARE TO
DEVELOP. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CEASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
ASIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES AROUND 20-30
MPH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK OFFSHORE WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BEHIND IT.
SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEFINITELY MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. WHILE THE MID-
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AND CENTER ITSELF JUST OFF THE COAST LATE ON MONDAY.
AFTER A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ON MONDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL WILL BE SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER
30S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND IN THE 40S EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 60S
SOUTH. EXPECT 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT BEGIN
TO UNRAVEL ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL FIRST APPROACH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. IN SHORT, EXPECT A COUPLE SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AND STAY THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM ITS
EARLIER PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80'S ON TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY,
LOWER 80S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES LOOK
NORMAL. FRIDAY COULD MOVE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER AT KRDG/KABE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY, WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 02-04Z AND TO
IFR BY 05-07Z. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 02Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7-10 KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z EXCLUDING KRDG/KABE.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KACY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OVERALL, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND SCATTER
OUT TO VFR BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW
WINDS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED, AT LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DELAWARE BAY BEGINNING AT 6 AM SATURDAY AS
WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 17-22 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4-6
FEET. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ALSO, PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BECOME WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT, IF SUCH FOG DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AT THE MINIMUM, SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY. IN THESE AREAS,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 25-35%. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR DELAWARE, MARYLAND, AS WELL AS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW
JERSEY WILL LIKELY SEE VALUES IN THE 35-45% OR GREATER RANGE. BASED
ON COORDINATION WITH OUR FOREST FIRE PARTNERS, A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE INCREASED DANGER OF FIRE SPREAD.
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
OVERALL, BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, THOUGH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, AND 1/10 INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE IN DELMARVA.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 30 TO
35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 40%
SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE AND 195 IN NJ. WE CAN'T RULE OUT 30 TO
35%.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DESILVA/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DESILVA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...PHI
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