276
FXUS61 KPHI 290048
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT ARRIVES
ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
BY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW CI CLOUDS AT SUNSET, WHICH WERE THE
ONLY CLOUDS TODAY, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MID 40S (NORTH) AND LOW 50S FOR THE METROS AND DELMARVA.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, THOUGH COOLER AT THE COASTS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN
THAT APPROACHING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO
30 MPH GUSTS.
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT APPROACHING
FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE DECAYING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT
TUESDAY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR FURTHEST REACHES OF THE
POCONOS, RAMPING DOWN QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-95.
LATEST OUTLOOK AT TIME OF WRITING PLACES POCONOS IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM ANY DYING STRONGER STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT IN, PERHAPS HELPED ALONG BY HIGHER DCAPE SINCE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE DRY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AT THE COAST, BUT THE LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE PROGRESS LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER, SO TEMPS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE POCONOS (60S) BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS I-95 (NEAR 80 DEGREES), AND DELMARVA/FAR S NJ
ACTUALLY LOOKS A BIT WARMER, HELPED ALONG BY AN OFFSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE COLD ADVECTION REALLY GETS GOING. RISK
OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE FRONT LOOKS
MINIMAL, SO JUST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL
DELMARVA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS MORE PROMINENT IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH ENOUGH CLEARING, DRIER AIR AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO MAKE IT NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
BOARD. LOWS MOSTLY MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES IN
THE COOLEST PARTS OF THE POCONOS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RETREATING EASTWARD AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER
LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. HIGHS MOSTLY 70S, 60S SHORE AND POCONOS.
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HOLD LOWS UP THURSDAY NIGHT,
GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
50S AND 60S COMMON. SHOULD BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR
FRIDAY, WITH MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE POCONOS AND SHORE REACHING
THE 80S AGAIN...70S POCONOS AND SHORE.
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT INTENSITY, BUT WE'LL BE
WATCHING ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK CLOSELY.
LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS THE FRONT CLEAR OUR REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COUPLE OF DAYS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR 70 BOTH DAYS WITH 60S
POCONOS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS OR
EVEN A SHOWER WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER LOW
FOR SATURDAY, BUT SUNDAY IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AND
SUNNY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN, WITH
40S COMMON, 30S IN THE POCONOS.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. SW TO S WINDS 0 TO 5 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR/SKC-FEW250. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS, BUT UNLIKELY. VFR SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE
ARE MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT.
OUTLOOK...
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING
TO SCA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY, DEW POINTS WILL BE RISING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
AS WELL, AND THIS WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES LOW. MINRH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE,
AND FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
EASTERN SHORES OF DELAWARE. WILL BE IN CONTACT WITH THE STATE
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS REGARDING THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ454-455.
SYNOPSIS...RCM/STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...MPS/PO
SHORT TERM...RCM/STAARMANN
LONG TERM...RCM/STAARMANN
AVIATION...MPS/RCM/PO
MARINE...MPS/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...
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