139
FXUS61 KPHI 290136
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG IT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND
GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT OCCURS ON THURSDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD WEAKEN. A NEW LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOVING AWAY ON
THURSDAY. ONGOING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW (VEERING WITH HEIGHT) CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN AREA
OF ASCENT ALSO SUPPORTED BY SOME WEAK 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF RAIN. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN ALSO TAPER OFF BY MOSTLY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SHIELD THOUGH, SOME
DRIZZLE OR LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME
OF RAIN WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE I-95
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. MUCH OF THIS LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH TO KEEP LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AT BAY, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS DELMARVA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY. AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO WEAKENS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY DURING THURSDAY, THE WINDS WILL TURN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND ALLOW SOME DRYING TO WORK IN. THIS
SHOULD ERODE A LOT OF THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST SOME BREAK OF SUN. AS THIS OCCURS, IT WILL TURN WARMER
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE 70S. GIVEN
A MORE OFFSHORE WIND OCCURRING, IT WILL BE WARMER RIGHT AT THE COAST
AS WELL. OUR REGION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN A LULL THURSDAY, THEREFORE
AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
TAKING PLACE. OVERALL THOUGH, IMPROVING CONDITIONS COMPARED TO TODAY
(WEDNESDAY).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO THE 60S SOUTH.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ON FRIDAY OR EVEN LIFT NORTH AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MODEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, OUTLINED BY A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE
SPC. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM I-95 NORTH
AND WEST, OUTLINED BY A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE WPC. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60.
A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, LIKELY ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON AT SOME POINT.
AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THIS FRONT, BUT NO
OUTLOOKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. AFTER THE FRONT TRACKS OFFSHORE, THE REGION
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE
WILL BRING A NOTABLY COOLER NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK
INTO THE 50S NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, AND BACK INTO THE 40S NORTH
AND WEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT THE MOMENT, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS BETTER THAN THE
FIRST HALF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY. WE'LL
STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND MAYBE SOME STRAY
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST, BUT OVERALL, SUNDAY IS LOOKING
BETTER THAN SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY, FOR THE MOST PART, LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THOUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS H5
HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW. TUESDAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS OVERALL. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, THEN WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY LATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWER CONFIDENCE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WIND GUSTS ON DELAWARE BAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25
KT, SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM.
OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
INTO THIS EVENING, THEN THE CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE'S A CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE RIGHT NOW. SO
NOT ISSUING A SCA ATTM. BUT AT THE VERY LEAST, CONDITIONS WILL BE
BUTTING UP AGAINST SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, BEFORE RAMPING DOWN
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE
JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES. ON THURSDAY, WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE, THOUGH WITH A LINGERING 6-8 PERIOD ONSHORE SWELL, A
MODERATE SHOULD SUFFICE.
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BECOMING ONSHORE FOR
SOUTH FACING BEACHES IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SHORE PARALLEL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE JERSEY SHORE AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS ARE FORECAST THOUGH WITH LONGER
PERIOD 7-9 SECOND SWELLS COMING ONSHORE. HOWEVER, THESE LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS LOOK TO BE SECONDARY OR TERTIARY TO A MAIN MEDIUM
6-8 PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. OVERALL, THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
MODERATE RISK DAY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MAINLY SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE INDICATE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE, AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT'S
HIGH TIDE AS A RESULT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT, AND ALL
COASTAL REGIONS FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES AND TIDAL PILING IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT, BUT
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWERING AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE NEW MOON, TO THE POINT WHERE THE THINKING IS THAT THEY
ALMOST CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT. ONLY SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/GUZZO/KRUZDLO
MARINE...AKL/GORSE/KRUZDLO/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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