300
FXUS61 KPHI 291425
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG
IT FRIDAY NIGHT. SWEEPING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY, KICKING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MUCH QUIETER WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE, BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE (MOSTLY NJ SHORE AREAS NOW) CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND, WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS
PICKING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR OUR REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRIER AIR WORKING IN, AND KICKING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN PEEKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S, WITH SOME AREAS IN LOWER DELMARVA GETTING INTO THE UPPER
70S.
FOR TONIGHT, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA, WHERE POPS ARE
AROUND 40-60%, GRADUALLY LOWERING THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. A
SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH AND WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR
DELMARVA, THIS IS THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL BE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS COMING IN
MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER (THAT COULD COME
MORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
OVERNIGHT, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
A MOIST SURFACE AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ON FRIDAY OR EVEN LIFT
NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND RIDES
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MODEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THAT AREA BRIEFLY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW. SPC MAINTAINS THE MRGL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT,
THOUGH THE THINKING IS THERE IS A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE
ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT COMING IN. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM I-95 NORTH AND WEST,
OUTLINED BY A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE WPC. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION FOR A SLGT FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR BUT AFTER SOME
COLLABORATION WITH WPC, WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD COME FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT RAINFALL RATES RIGHT
NOW LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
HOWEVER, THE AREA HAS SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATELY AND
AS WE GET INTO RANGE WITH THE CAMS, SOME, SUCH AS THE NAMNEST,
SHOW A DECENT HIT FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH/WEST.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL RE- EVALUATE AND SEE IF THE SLGT IS NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, LIKELY ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON AT SOME POINT.
AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THIS FRONT, WITH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
AGAIN, THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. AFTER THE FRONT TRACKS
OFFSHORE, THE REGION WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BRING A NOTABLY COOLER NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK INTO THE 50S NEAR AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-95, AND BACK INTO THE 40S NORTH AND WEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT THE MOMENT, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS BETTER THAN THE
FIRST HALF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY. WE'LL
STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND MAYBE SOME STRAY
SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL, SUNDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
MONDAY, FOR THE MOST PART, LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THOUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS H5
HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW AND
RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. WE GO INTO
MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... SLOW IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
PICS. IFR AT MANY SITES STILL AT 10AM BUT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
AROUND NOON THEN VFR FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFID
OVERALL.
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG. POTENTIAL FOR LIFR, MAINLY AT KACY/KMIV. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (30-50%) FROM KPHL ON SOUTH,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST. WINDS
FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 5 KT OR LESS BUT COULD BE
CALM/VARIABLE AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITONS LIKELY PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH 60-80% CHANCE SHRA AND 20-30% CHANCE
TSRA. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH
TODAY AS SEAS ARE AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS GRADUALLY DECLINE
THROUGH THE DAY, AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY (60-70%)
WITH SEAS GETTING NEAR 5 TO 6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE JERSEY SHORE
AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES. ON THURSDAY, WINDS TURN OFFSHORE,
THOUGH WITH A LINGERING 6-8 PERIOD ONSHORE SWELL, A MODERATE
SHOULD SUFFICE.
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BECOMING ONSHORE FOR
SOUTH FACING BEACHES IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SHORE PARALLEL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE JERSEY SHORE AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS ARE FORECAST THOUGH WITH LONGER
PERIOD 7-9 SECOND SWELLS COMING ONSHORE. HOWEVER, THESE LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS LOOK TO BE SECONDARY OR TERTIARY TO A MAIN MEDIUM
6-8 PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. OVERALL, THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
MODERATE RISK DAY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TIDAL
LEVELS SHOULD DECLINE GETTING AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON AND FLOW
TURNING OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COAST AND WITHIN THE DELAWARE BAY.
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/PO
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/PO
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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