341
FXUS61 KPHI 291853
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
253 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG IT
FRIDAY NIGHT. SWEEPING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY,
KICKING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ARRIVE
FOR SUNDAY AND GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MUCH QUIETER WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
STILL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FURTHER N/E ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING.
TONIGHT...A NEW SHORT WAVE ACROSS VA/MD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ OVERNIGHT. HIGHER POPS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N/W TO THE LOW 60S FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTH
NJ.
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY, BUT HUMID AIR PREVAILS OVER
THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S
MOST AREAS. SKIES WILL OVERALL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT AFTERNOON BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS DELMARVA FOR FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TOO.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ON FRIDAY OR EVEN LIFT NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND RIDES NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
GRIDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
MODEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AS THAT
AREA BRIEFLY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE PASSING SURFACE LOW. SPC MAINTAINS THE MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH THE
THINKING IS THERE IS A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE ON SATURDAY
WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT COMING IN. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM I-95 NORTH AND WEST, OUTLINED BY A
MARGINAL RISK FROM THE WPC. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A
SLGT FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR BUT AFTER SOME COLLABORATION WITH
WPC, WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD
COME FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT RAINFALL RATES RIGHT NOW LOOK LOW ENOUGH
TO PREVENT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HOWEVER, THE AREA HAS SEEN
A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATELY AND AS WE GET INTO RANGE WITH
THE CAMS, SOME, SUCH AS THE NAMNEST, SHOW A DECENT HIT FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH/WEST. THE DAY SHIFT WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND SEE IF THE SLGT IS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, LIKELY ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON AT SOME POINT.
AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THIS FRONT, WITH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
AGAIN, THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. AFTER THE FRONT TRACKS
OFFSHORE, THE REGION WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BRING A NOTABLY COOLER NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK INTO THE 50S NEAR AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-95, AND BACK INTO THE 40S NORTH AND WEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT... A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS DELMARVA BUT OTHER THAN THAT, FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWS
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N/W TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S S/E.
MONDAY THRU THURSDAY... OVERALL, DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS EACH DAY. HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S AND BY
WED/THU HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK HAVE TRENDED
MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT
VFR/MVFR THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO IFR/LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE UP INTO SE NJ, LOW CONFID
OVERALL. WINDS LIGHT W/NW THEN SW/S OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY
LOW CONDITIONS EARLY THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE LATE
MORNING. LIGHT W WINDS MOSTLY. LOW CONFID OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT... LOW CIGS/VSBYS MUCH OF THE TIME WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY... MOSTLY VFR.
MARINE
SCA FLAG FOR LOW-END SEAS REMAIN UNTIL 6PM. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SAT WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED. GUSTS BELOW SCA LEVELS ATTM , BUT INCREASES POSSIBLE.
RAINS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY... FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE JERSEY SHORE
AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES. ON THURSDAY, WINDS TURN OFFSHORE,
THOUGH WITH A LINGERING 6-8 PERIOD ONSHORE SWELL, A MODERATE
SHOULD SUFFICE.
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BECOMING ONSHORE FOR
SOUTH FACING BEACHES IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SHORE PARALLEL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE JERSEY SHORE AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS ARE FORECAST THOUGH WITH LONGER
PERIOD 7-9 SECOND SWELLS COMING ONSHORE. HOWEVER, THESE LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS LOOK TO BE SECONDARY OR TERTIARY TO A MAIN MEDIUM
6-8 PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. OVERALL, THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
MODERATE RISK DAY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL LEVELS SHOULD DECLINE GETTING AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON AND
FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COAST AND WITHIN THE DELAWARE BAY.
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...STAFF
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...OHARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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