347
FXUS61 KPHI 310743
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER SUNDAY THEN ARRIVES IN OUR AREA LATER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
POTENT LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HEAD NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM US THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. FRONT-END RAINS AND STORMS ARE DEPARTING TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH IT, BUT WRAPAROUND BACKSIDE RAINS WILL SPREAD
BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THAT HAVING BEEN
SAID, THIS SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE NOWHERE NEAR AS
INTENSE AS THE FIRST. MORE OF POTENTIAL IMPORT IS THAT AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS, WINDS MAY PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PHILLY, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. FURTHER NORTH, WHILE A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH
CRITERIA, DON'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 46 MPH OR GREATER
TODAY.
SECONDARY WRAPAROUND RAINS SHOULD END TOWARDS MIDDAY, WITH SOME
SUN BREAKING THROUGH. NOT LONG THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL CROSS THE
REGION. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE A LITTLE LACKING, SO WHILE
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ESPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT MAINLY 60S I-78
CORRIDOR INTO NW NJ AND NEAR 60 IN THE POCONOS.
CLEARING AND COOLER BUT STILL A BIT BREEZY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS RETURNING TO THE REGION. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS
ENDING UP IN THE 40S FOR MOST. DEFINITELY STARTING OFF
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON A BIT OF A CHILLY NOTE.
WE'LL START WITH SOME SUN FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER ON SUNDAY, BUT UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AS WE WORK OUR WAY THRU THE DAY. COULD EVEN BE A
STRAY SHOWER IN THE POCONOS, AND IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND COOL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED
TODAY...I.E., NOT VERY SUMMERY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY CONTINUES BUILDING EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING UP ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF US BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT WITH
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVERHEAD, WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLOUDS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS ACTUALLY
TRIES TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE MOSTLY DISCOUNTED IT. WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT, A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL GET UNDERWAY. THUS, WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WE'LL AGAIN SEE LOWS
IN THE 40S FOR MANY, 50S WARMEST SPOTS, MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN, MONDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD
RETURN SOLIDLY INTO THE 70S FOR MOST, WITH EVEN THE HIGH POCONOS
AND SHORE GETTING CLOSE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING A 'BERMUDA' POSITION OFF
THE COAST. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING, AND IN FACT
MIGHT GET OUR FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, A DRY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
AS WELL. HIGHS START OUT IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY, REACH THE
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY, THEN REALLY FLIRT WITH 90 THURSDAY BEFORE
POSSIBLY DROPPING BACK A BIT FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 60 FOR MANY
TUESDAY NIGHT, ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY
STAY AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH
IT, BUT RIGHT NOW ONLY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCE POPS.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DEPARTING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS THEN MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TOWARDS
12Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE. OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
WILL OCCUR, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING TO TIMING OF LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON. WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS WILL CEASE IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS, THOUGH
HIGHEST GUSTS LIKELY IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES UNTIL 11 AM
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ZONE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
MANASQUAN INLET WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS IN THE SCA AREA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 30 KT AND CLOSER
TO 35 TO 40 KT FOR THE GALE AREA. THE PERIODS OF GALES WILL NOT
LAST AS LONG AS THE WARNING, BUT WE'VE ADDED TIME ON BOTH SIDES
DUE TO NORMAL FORECAST VARIATIONS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, HAVE A BREAK, THEN RESUME THIS
AFTERNOON. SCA FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE IS TAKEN
DOWN LATER TODAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT AT LEAST FOR A
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND SCA LEVELS SUNDAY, SO WE
MAY NEED AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY. REDUCTION IN WINDS CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEK, SO RISK OF ANY HEADLINES WILL STEADILY REDUCE
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH BREAKING
WAVES AROUND 1-3 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT,
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 MPH
WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS.
AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
HYDROLOGY
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS NOW FALLEN AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY INTO THE MORNING, WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THEM ADDING SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RAIN WHICH HAS
ALREADY FALLEN. THUS, PLAN TO BRING DOWN THE FLOOD WATCH ON
SCHEDULE IF NOT SOONER. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, WE CONTINUE TO
WATCH SEVERAL STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH ARE RISING AND ADDITIONAL
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO
THE MORNING.
YOU CAN ALSO VISIT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS:
WEATHER.GOV/PHI
TO STAY ON TOP OF THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, VISIT THE NATIONAL
WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBSITE:
WATER.NOAA.GOV
TO VIEW RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND OUR FORECASTS IN TABLE FORM,
CHECK OUT OUR DASHBOARD:
WEATHER.GOV/PHI/HYDRODASHBOARD
IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE FLOODING THREAT IN TERMS OF
PROBABILITIES, CHECK OUT THIS HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST LINK:
WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL FLOODING RISK APPEARS TO BE SUBSIDING NOW THAT WINDS ARE
SHIFTING WESTERLY. NO FURTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071-106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
015>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ016>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ017>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM
MARINE...RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM
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