339
FXUS61 KPHI 311926
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
326 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SUNDAY THEN ARRIVES
IN OUR AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOR TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND IT WILL
BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. WE HAVE HAD A FEW MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DELMARVA, SO THIS COULD CONTINUE
UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AND COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP OVER THE REGION. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S REGIONWIDE. THESE LOWS WILL BE MORE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL
THAN FOR EARLY JUNE. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR THE START OF JUNE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE READINGS ARE STILL COOL FOR
THE START OF SUMMER, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND WINDS WILL NOT
BE THAT GUSTY. WEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY CONTINUES BUILDING EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING UP ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF US BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT WITH
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVERHEAD, WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLOUDS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS ACTUALLY
TRIES TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT, BUT FOR NOW HAVE MOSTLY DISCOUNTED IT. WITH
MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT, A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL GET UNDERWAY. THUS, WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WE'LL AGAIN SEE LOWS
IN THE 40S FOR MANY, 50S WARMEST SPOTS, MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN, MONDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD
RETURN SOLIDLY INTO THE 70S FOR MOST, WITH EVEN THE HIGH POCONOS
AND SHORE GETTING CLOSE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING A 'BERMUDA' POSITION OFF
THE COAST. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING, AND IN FACT
MIGHT GET OUR FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, A DRY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
AS WELL. HIGHS START OUT IN THE LOW-MID 80S TUESDAY, REACH THE
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY, THEN REALLY FLIRT WITH 90 THURSDAY BEFORE
POSSIBLY DROPPING BACK A BIT FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 60 FOR MANY
TUESDAY NIGHT, ELEVATE INTO THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY
STAY AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH
IT, BUT RIGHT NOW ONLY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CHANCE POPS.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL DIMINISH BY 01Z/02Z AND SKIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AND BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY
VFR EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLEAR. WEST WINDS INCREASING BY
MID MORNING TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND THE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
TIMING OF THE SCA MAY BE TOO LONG ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND THE
SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT WE'LL MONITOR IT THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. SUNDAY...SUB-SCA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SCA FLAG MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS BUT WILL NOT LAST ALL DAY. FAIR.
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH BREAKING
WAVES AROUND 1-3 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT,
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 MPH
WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS.
AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
HYDROLOGY
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH SEVERAL STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH ARE EITHER
STILL RISING SLOWLY, OR RUNNING HIGH. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT OUR
WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS:
WEATHER.GOV/PHI
TO STAY ON TOP OF THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, VISIT THE NATIONAL
WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBSITE:
WATER.NOAA.GOV
TO VIEW RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND OUR FORECASTS IN TABLE FORM,
CHECK OUT OUR DASHBOARD:
WEATHER.GOV/PHI/HYDRODASHBOARD
IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE FLOODING THREAT IN TERMS OF
PROBABILITIES, CHECK OUT THIS HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST LINK:
WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...RCM/OHARA
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...OHARA/RCM
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
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