336
FXUS61 KPHI 010740
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY THEN
ARRIVES IN OUR AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WILL BEGIN ON A COOL NOTE
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH UPPER 50S FOR THE
POCONOS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WEST WINDS
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT A
SPOT SHOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ALOFT PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN NEW ENGLAND. SOME HIGH RES
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND, BUT A VERY DRY
COLUMN OF AIR LIKELY MEANS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT REACH THE
GROUND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
BETTER CONTROL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY CONTINUES BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, ENDING UP ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF US BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH
LINGERING OVERHEAD, WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST, A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL GET
UNDERWAY. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH
80S BY TUESDAY. OUR COOL NIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY GET WARMER AS
WELL, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONING ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING,
AND IN FACT MIGHT GET OUR FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY BY LATER IN THE
WEEK. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY, THEN REALLY FLIRT
WITH 90 THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY DROPPING BACK A BIT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKING SHAPE LATE WEEK WITH WEAK TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY... VFR EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLEAR. WEST WINDS INCREASING BY
MID MORNING TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING, FALLING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST ALL DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON,
WSW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS, STAYING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SSW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KTS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH BREAKING
WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR MONDAY...WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1-2
FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
HYDROLOGY
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH SEVERAL STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH ARE EITHER
STILL RISING SLOWLY, OR RUNNING HIGH. YOU CAN ALSO VISIT OUR
WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS:
WEATHER.GOV/PHI
TO STAY ON TOP OF THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, VISIT THE NATIONAL
WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBSITE:
WATER.NOAA.GOV
TO VIEW RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND OUR FORECASTS IN TABLE FORM,
CHECK OUT OUR DASHBOARD:
WEATHER.GOV/PHI/HYDRODASHBOARD
IF YOU WANT TO SEE THE FLOODING THREAT IN TERMS OF
PROBABILITIES, CHECK OUT THIS HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST LINK:
WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...MJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...MJL/RCM
LONG TERM...MJL/RCM
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL
HYDROLOGY...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page