184
FXUS61 KPHI 011741
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY THEN
ARRIVES IN OUR AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW. WE HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY SUNSET.
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY, AND TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10
MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF US THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH
LINGERING OVERHEAD, WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST, A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL GET
UNDERWAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 80S BY TUESDAY. OUR COOL NIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY GET WARMER AS WELL, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
MONDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONING ITSELF OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING,
AND IN FACT MIGHT GET OUR FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY BY LATER IN THE
WEEK. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY, THEN REALLY FLIRT
WITH 90 THURSDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY DROPPING BACK A BIT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKING SHAPE LATE WEEK WITH WEAK TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ALOFT.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000-6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY
SUNSET. WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY, WILL BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
MARINE
AN OCCASIONAL GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BEACHES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BUT WIDESPREAD GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION EARLY
MONDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SSW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KTS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH BREAKING
WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR MONDAY...WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1-2
FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...MJL/RCM
LONG TERM...MJL/RCM
AVIATION...MJL/ROBERTSON
MARINE...MJL/ROBERTSON
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