481
FXUS61 KPHI 011839
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
239 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
TAKE SHAPE STARTING THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW. WE HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY SUNSET.
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY, AND TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10
MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND AND DRY WEATHER. THE WEEKEND TROUGHING WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY, RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S MONDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH
SOME TROUGHING BUILDING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SET UP A PATTERN WHERE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BY THURSDAY, WHEN DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE A BIT LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MANY INLAND AREAS.
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, SAVE FOR POSSIBLY NEAR/NORTH
OF I-78. THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY SUBTLE, SO EXACT DETAILS WILL REMAIN
UNCLEAR IN THIS PERIOD UNTIL A FEW DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5000-6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY
SUNSET. WINDS 5-10 KNOTS EARLY, WILL BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
AN OCCASIONAL GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BEACHES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BUT WIDESPREAD GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION EARLY
MONDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SSW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH BREAKING
WAVES AROUND 1-2 FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR MONDAY...WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1-2
FEET AND A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
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