009
FXUS61 KPHI 021841
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AND REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY, BEFORE A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW AFFECTS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER. THUS, EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THIS SHIFT, AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, THE WARMING
TREND WILL KICK OFF TOMORROW WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY STAY OVER THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
SMOKE COULD MIX CLOSER TO THE GROUND, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THAT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT
TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS TO OUR NORTH LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, MULTIPLE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP CREATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, POSSIBLE REACHING 90+ DEGREES FOR SOME AREAS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 90-95 DEGREES
AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BY SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST WITH CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG,
AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES. SO THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY WEAK, 40-50 KNOTS OR LESS, SO
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED OVERLY STRONG. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH, POSSIBLY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER
COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS MOSTLY FAVORING NW AND SW, BUT
COULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR, BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE (10%) THAT
SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES WILL MIX CLOSER TO THE GROUND
RESULTING IN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BUT EVENTUALLY FAVORING A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA/NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOWER CONDITIONS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, AND
SEAS INCREASE TO 3-4 FEET AT TIMES. SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING,
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AROUND
1-2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR TUESDAY...WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING, WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1-2
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page