596
FXUS61 KPHI 240513
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO THE SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
DECREASING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARMING
TREND WILL RESUME OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY
SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN OVER A DECADE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH HOT AND DRY PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN US THROUGH TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS, THICKNESSES,
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE HEAT WAVE WILL ALL
PEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD MAXIMIZE HEAT POTENTIAL
LOCALLY. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL ADD A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
EQUATION, HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES. THE
PATTERN IS CHECKING A LOT OF BOXES FOR A SET UP CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN OUR
REGION, PERHAPS ONE OF THE MOST FAVORABLE PATTERNS IN A FEW
YEARS.
FOR TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER, WITH
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS, THOUGH THE PATTERN WILL
FAVOR DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT REASONABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITY, BUT HIGHER TEMPERATURES,
RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NOT VERY DIFFERENT THAN MONDAY.
STILL LOOKING AT 100-110 HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE BOARD. AGAIN,
A SEA-BREEZE MAY TRY TO GENERATE, BUT LIKELY WON'T GET TOO FAR
INLAND. REGARDLESS OF THOSE DETAILS, IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO
BE VERY HOT!
WITH OBSERVED HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES, EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES,
JERSEY SHORE AND CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES WHERE HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN PLACE. AROUND THE DELAWARE VALLEY,
LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, TEMPERATURES COULD BE
THE HOTTEST OBSERVED IN OVER A DECADE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 75 TO 80 DEGREES. HEAT TENDS TO HAVE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS
ON THE BODY AND WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF 95+ AND 5-6 DAYS OF 90+ TAKING INTO ACCOUNT TEMPERATURES THIS
PAST WEEKEND. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF OUTSIDE, AND DRINK PLENTY
OF FLUIDS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH VERY SLOW HEIGHT FALLS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S, AND POTENTIALLY FAILING
TO FALL BELOW 80 IN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE POCONOS AND THE COASTAL STRIP TO THE MID-UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE. WITH HIGH HUMIDITY REMAINING, HEAT INDICES AT PEAK
HEATING WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
PA, INLAND NJ, AND THE DELMARVA, WITH VALUES NEAR 105 POSSIBLE.
WITH THIS IN MIND, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL BUT CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES, AND A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE, THROUGH 8 PM.
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH A
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO APPROACH NORTHERN REGIONS. STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-END
CHANCE RANGE. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY, GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS,
THOUGH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER
ANY SEVERE THREAT.
WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER (THOUGH STILL QUITE WARM). IN GENERAL, LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 70 IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST, AND IN THE
LOW-MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTENSIFY SOME, AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COULD PASS THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY SLOW SOME, BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD AND
CLEARING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PA,
SOUTHERN NJ, AND THE DELMARVA, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 90S. FOR THESE AREAS, IT WILL
ALSO REMAIN HUMID. THEREFORE, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
SOME HEAT HEADLINES COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.
NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
80S. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. ON FRIDAY, IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ WILL BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, SOUTHERN NJ, AND THE DELMARVA.
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER THE AREA WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR LOWS AND
NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS. ISOLATED, PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION, WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE MONDAY
AND BEYOND, WITH INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-
AIR PATTERN TAKING SHAPE.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IF THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY, AROUND
WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEABREEZE
POSSIBLE NEAR KACY WHICH MAY CAUSE WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KT WITH 2 FOOT SEAS. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TUESDAY, NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TURN S IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES. A WEAK E TO ESE SWELL AROUND 1
FEET WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1 FEET, THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE JERSEY SHORE AND FOR DELAWARE BEACHES. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE NEW MOON APPROACHING ON JUNE 25TH, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS
OBSERVED FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND BACK BAYS AS WELL AS
WITHIN DELAWARE BAY BEGINNING TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEK AS ASTRO TIDES PEAK. NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER OR
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALL CLIMATE SITES EXCEPT
WILMINGTON AND GEORGETOWN SET RECORD HIGHS AND ALL CLIMATE SITES
EXCEPT READING SET RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 23RD.
ADDITIONALLY, MOUNT POCONO SET THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE YESTERDAY (JUNE 23RD). THE ATLANTIC CITY
MARINA AND WILMINGTON TIED THEIR ALL TIME RECORD WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE YESTERDAY (JUNE 23RD) AS WELL. FURTHER
RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE WEEK. BELOW IS A LOOK AT
THE LAST 100 DEGREE DAY, DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR ALL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES.
MOST RECENT 100 DEGREE DAY
SITE DATE/TEMPERATURE
ALLENTOWN (ABE) JULY 22, 2011/104
AC AIRPORT (ACY) JULY 21, 2019/100
AC MARINA (55N) JULY 5, 1999/101
GEORGETOWN (GED) JULY 21, 2019/100
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) JULY 3, 1911/103
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) JULY 18, 2012/100
READING (RDG) JUNE 22, 2024/101
TRENTON (TTN) JULY 18, 2012/100
WILMINGTON (ILG) JULY 18, 2012/101
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUNE 24
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 98/1923
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 99/2010
AC MARINA (55N) 95/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 97/2010
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 92/1914
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 99/1923
READING (RDG) 98/1908 & 1923
TRENTON (TTN) 98/1894
WILMINGTON (ILG) 102/1894
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
JUNE 24
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 71/2010
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 72/1951, 2013, 2017 & 2024
AC MARINA (55N) 72/1924, 2002, 2010, 2011, 2013 & 2020
GEORGETOWN (GED) 74/2010
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 66/1960, 1964 & 2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 75/1909, 1921, 1994 & 2020
READING (RDG) 73/1909, 1994 & 2010
TRENTON (TTN) 76/1894 & 2010
WILMINGTON (ILG) 74/1994
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUNE 25
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 98/1923
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 96/1997
AC MARINA (55N) 95/1952
GEORGETOWN (GED) 96/1952
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 91/1952
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 98/1952
READING (RDG) 99/1943
TRENTON (TTN) 99/1997
WILMINGTON (ILG) 98/1894
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
JUNE 25
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 74/1923 & 1976
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 80/1950
AC MARINA (55N) 75/1997 & 2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 75/2019
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 69/1952
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 76/1909, 1976 & 2002
READING (RDG) 75/1943 & 1949
TRENTON (TTN) 75/1976
WILMINGTON (ILG) 75/1976
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062-
070-071-101>106.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-013-015>023-027.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/MJL/STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...AKL/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/DESILVA/HOEFLICH
MARINE...AKL/COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HOEFLICH
CLIMATE...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
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