493
FXUS61 KPHI 250556
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
156 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HOT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL
WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND ALLOW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO TRACK
THOUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY (PRIMARILY AFTER 3 PM) NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. A HIGH
CAPE, LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH HIGH MOISTURE, SO
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IS POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO OUR HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL BEACH ZONES AND CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE. AROUND
THE DELAWARE VALLEY, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE HOTTEST OBSERVED IN OVER A
DECADE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, LIKELY EVEN WARMER IN THE
MOST URBAN ENVIRONMENTS.
HEAT TENDS TO HAVE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ON THE BODY AND IS EXACERBATED
WHEN THE BODY CAN'T RECOVER AT NIGHT. IF OUTSIDE, DRINK WATER, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS, AND FIND SOME SHADE. WATCH OUT FOR HEAT CRAMPS,
EXHAUSTION, OR STROKE. DON'T LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN A CLOSED CAR.
IF AIR CONDITIONING IS NOT AVAILABLE IN YOUR HOME, FIND A COOLING
OPTION WITH FRIENDS OR FAMILY OR A NEARBY COOLING STATION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE (POPS AROUND 20-40%) BEGINNING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING
EARLIER IN THE DAY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY, GUSTY WINDS
COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS, THOUGH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER ANY SEVERE THREAT. WITH
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
(THOUGH STILL QUITE WARM). IN GENERAL, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 70 IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST, AND IN THE MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. FOR THESE
AREAS, IT WILL REMAIN HUMID, THUS SOME HEAT INDICIES AROUND
95-100 WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN, THOUGH WITH THE FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, THESE LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONTAINED TO
DELMARVA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST, WE WILL
GET TO ENJOY A DRAMATICALLY COOLER DAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S! A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL AND IN THE 60S.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE BACKDOOR
FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY MORNING AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE INTO THE NEW
WEEK. ISOLATED, PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE TUESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER- AIR PATTERN TAKING SHAPE.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. W-NW WINDS AROUND
5 KT OR LESS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN'T
RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL IS VERY
LOW AND LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10
KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. S-SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME W-NW OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10 KT. W-NW
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF
THE SE-S AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH
OR LESS. WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A
DOMINANT SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. THIS SET UP WILL RESULT IN A LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE
JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR THURSDAY, WINDS WILL TURN MORE ONSHORE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 MPH WITH WAVES CONTINUING TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A
DOMINANT SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. THIS SET UP WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR SHORE AREAS IN MONMOUTH COUNTY NJ WITH A LOW RISK
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE NEW MOON APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25TH, ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE INCREASING. SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND BACK BAYS AS WELL AS WITHIN
DELAWARE BAY LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS AND IT'S POSSIBLE FOR
TOMORROW EVENING'S HIGH TIDE THAT SOME ADVISORIES MAY END UP
BEING NEEDED.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORIES POTENTIALLY BEING NEEDED STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE WE GET AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON, ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WATER PILING UP AND MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FOR THE COASTAL AND DELAWARE BAY COMMUNITIES.
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER OR
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALL CLIMATE SITES EXCEPT WILMINGTON AND
GEORGETOWN SET RECORD HIGHS AND ALL CLIMATE SITES EXCEPT
READING SET RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 23RD.
ADDITIONALLY, MOUNT POCONO SET THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE YESTERDAY (JUNE 23RD). THE ATLANTIC CITY
MARINA AND WILMINGTON TIED THEIR ALL TIME RECORD WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE YESTERDAY (JUNE 23RD) AS WELL. FURTHER
RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE WEEK. BELOW IS A LOOK AT
THE LAST 100 DEGREE DAY, DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR ALL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES.
MOST RECENT 100 DEGREE DAY
SITE DATE/TEMPERATURE
ALLENTOWN (ABE) JULY 22, 2011/104
AC AIRPORT (ACY) JULY 21, 2019/100
AC MARINA (55N) JULY 5, 1999/101
GEORGETOWN (GED) JULY 21, 2019/100
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) JULY 3, 1911/103
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) JULY 18, 2012/100
READING (RDG) JUNE 22, 2024/101
TRENTON (TTN) JULY 18, 2012/100
WILMINGTON (ILG) JULY 18, 2012/101
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUNE 24
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 98/1923
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 99/2010
AC MARINA (55N) 95/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 97/2010
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 92/1914
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 99/1923
READING (RDG) 98/1908 & 1923
TRENTON (TTN) 98/1894
WILMINGTON (ILG) 102/1894
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
JUNE 24
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 71/2010
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 72/1951, 2013, 2017 & 2024
AC MARINA (55N) 72/1924, 2002, 2010, 2011, 2013 & 2020
GEORGETOWN (GED) 74/2010
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 66/1960, 1964 & 2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 75/1909, 1921, 1994 & 2020
READING (RDG) 73/1909, 1994 & 2010
TRENTON (TTN) 76/1894 & 2010
WILMINGTON (ILG) 74/1994
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUNE 25
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 98/1923
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 96/1997
AC MARINA (55N) 95/1952
GEORGETOWN (GED) 96/1952
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 91/1952
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 98/1952
READING (RDG) 99/1943
TRENTON (TTN) 99/1997
WILMINGTON (ILG) 98/1894
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
JUNE 25
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 74/1923 & 1976
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 80/1950
AC MARINA (55N) 75/1997 & 2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 75/2019
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 69/1952
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 76/1909, 1976 & 2002
READING (RDG) 75/1943 & 1949
TRENTON (TTN) 75/1976
WILMINGTON (ILG) 75/1976
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-013-015>023-027.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...AKL/COOPER/MJL
LONG TERM...AKL/COOPER/MJL
AVIATION...AKL/DESILVA/KRUZDLO/MJL
MARINE...AKL/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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