756
FXUS61 KPHI 261741
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS WEAKENING,
ALLOWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO TRACK THOUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM NEAR ALLENTOWN SOUTH TO NEAR PHILLY AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CITY. LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST HAVE COOLED AND CLOUDED
UP CONSIDERABLY. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
REMAIN, AND IN FACT IT TURNED OUT THE NEED WAS PRESENT TO EXPAND
THE HEAT ADVISORIES UP INTO PHILLY METRO ONCE AGAIN AS HEAT
INDICES ARE MEETING THE EARLY-SEASON CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
WHERE THE FRONT HAS YET TO REACH, HEAT AND INSTABILITY HAVE
INCREASED, AND STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP. AS THESE STORMS
START TO INTERSECT THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING FRONT, THEY MAY
STALL ON THE BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT. HREF WAS MOST BULLISH ACROSS AREAS JUST
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL IS PRESENT TO GIVE US CONFIDENCE IN POSTING A FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES IN PA THRU THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY
MAKE THEIR WAY FURTHER EAST, WITH A LESSER BUT STILL PRESENT
HEAVY RAIN THREAT, BUT THE HIGHEST RISK DEFINITELY APPEARS TO
BE IN THE FAR WEST. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ALSO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
LATER TONIGHT AS CONVECTION WINDS DOWN, THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHWEST AND BLANKET MOST OF THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A
MUCH COOLER EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
POCONOS, 60S MOST ELSEWHERE, BUT NEAR 70 SOUTHERN DELMARVA
ZONES.
A LOW CLOUD DECK WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY ON THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SOME SHOWERS
AND SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP VIA DISTURBANCES PASSING
ALOFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT SEVERE AND FLOOD RISK LOOK
LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL NJ, LIKELY FAILING TO DO SO IN THE POCONOS, BUT
MAY TOUCH 80 ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD AND FAR SOUTHERN DE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE WAVY FRONT NEARBY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE NOTEWORTHY WITH HIGH TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 70S FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. THESE HIGHS ARE SOME 20
DEGREES LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. WE'LL HAVE MOSTLY CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GREATER CHANCES FOR THE N/W COUNTIES AND LESSER POPS FOR S/E
AREAS. ON SATURDAY, THE FRONTS DRAW NEARER AND LIKELY POPS ARE
IN THE GRIDS FOR N/W AREAS WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E/SE AREAS.
HIGHS SAT WILL SNAP BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
85 TO 90 DEGREE TEMPS AGAIN MOST SPOTS WITH LOW 80S N/W.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NEARBY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING/MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE AREA LATELY WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL KEEP THE EXTREME HEAT AWAY FROM THE AREA. STILL, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. READINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
RECORD SETTING LIKE THIS PAST WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S ACROSS THE S/E AREAS AND LOW/MID 80S FOR
NORTH NJ AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH SOME MID 70S IN URBAN AREAS.
ANOTHER RESULT OF THE STORM TRACK BEING NEARBY WILL ENSURE MORE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FOR THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH TUE HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS (LOW LIKELY
RANGE MOSTLY) AND LOW NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN POPS ARE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM. UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS LATER NEXT WEEK, SO
MORE SHOWERS AND NORMAL TEMPS (IF NOT BELOW) MAY ARRIVE LATER NEXT
WEEK. THE DIFFERENT MODELS OFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF TROUGHING, SO
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MILD IT WILL ACTUALLY BE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
PHL NORTH AND EAST AS BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGS STRATUS DECK. SPOTTY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
STORMS THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS LATER AT
NIGHT. WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST 5-10 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONTINUED LOW STRATUS
DECK WHICH LIKELY LINGERS MOST IF NOT ALL DAY. WINDS STILL EAST
TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY AREAS WITH HAVE LOW-END
MVFR WITH IFR STRONGLY POSSIBLE TOO.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY... LARGELY VFR BUT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS AT
TIMES WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN TWO NJ
MARINE ZONE GIVEN NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTING 25-30 KTS WHICH LIKELY
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET. REST OF
ZONES SHOULD SEE NE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS THRU FRIDAY AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. A SPOTTY GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED TSTMS FOR THE
PERIODS. THE MOSTLY LIKELY TIMES WILL BE AFTERNOONS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RECENT NEW MOON AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
WHILE WE GET AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON, ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WATER PILING UP AND MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR THE
COASTAL AND DELAWARE BAY COMMUNITIES. IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER
WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY BE FOR ONE TIDE CYCLE, BUT WE'LL MONITOR
LATER TODAY TO ASSURE THAT THIS TREND CONTINUES.
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER OR
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-
104.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-060-061-101-
102.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ017-018.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>003.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SYNOPSIS...OHARA/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...OHARA/RCM
MARINE...OHARA/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI
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