043
FXUS61 KPHI 270907
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR REGION TODAY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING
NEARBY ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE SURFACE FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THE PREDAWN
HOURS WITH SOME RAINS DIMINISHING ACROSS DELAWARE AND EXTREME SE NJ.
A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT COOL STABLE AIR FROM THE N/NE
ACROSS THE OCEAN AND THEN ACROSS ERN PA/NJ. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED
WITH THE COOLER AIR. THIS AIRMASS WILL SETTLE AND REMAIN FOR THE DAY
PRODUCING WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND FREQUENT CLOUDS.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TOO BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFID WITH WHAT AREAS
WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE'LL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
TODAY FOR THE AREA. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH PERHAPS SOME
UPPER 60S FAR N/W. QUITE A CONTRAST WITH EARLIER THIS WEEK.
TONIGHT, THE FRONT WHICH SETTLED SOUTH OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MORE
FREQUENT SHOWERS TO THE N/W AREAS WHERE WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTM. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT HEAVY RAINS AND
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WHILE
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS/TSTMS AROUND FOR SATURDAY, THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL. ONE THING OF NOTE WILL BE THE
RETURN OF SOME HEAT AND HUMIDITY SAT WITH THE FRONT MOVING NORTH OF
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS
WILL TREND HIGHER TOO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE TSTMS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WE'LL
CONTINUE WITH THE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND NW
AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA. THE ENTIRE CWA
IS IN A DAY2 MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA SAT EVENING, THE RAINS WILL
DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT'LL REMAIN
MILD HOWEVER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S S/E AND LOW/MID 60S
FOR NW COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. INSTEAD OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH PARKED
OVERHEAD PUMPING HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER US, WE'LL SEE A SERIES OF
BROAD TROUGHS CROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
AT TIMES. THE STORM TRACK WILL BE NEARBY, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOT FEATURE EXTREMES LIKE LAST WEEK, BUT STILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR.
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE MONDAY AS WE ARE STILL
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT AND THE TEMPS FROM THE WEEKEND CARRY
INTO MONDAY WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST AREAS AND SOME LOW/MID 80S
FOR THE FAR N/W AREAS AND NEAR THE SHORE. AFTER THAT, HIGHS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MID/UPPER 80S
S/E AND LOW 80S N/W. HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S BUT DRIER AFTER THAT WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
COMPARED TO THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM. CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FCST FOR MONDAY (MOSTLY AFTERNOON) WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
TUESDAY.
LATER NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IT'LL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY 85 TO 90 WILE LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
FORECASTS 5 OR 6 DAYS OUT IN SUMMER IS LOW.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. LOW-END MVFR THEN HIGH-END IFR
PROBABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. LOW CONFID.
TONIGHT
A CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IFR
OR LIFR POSSIBLE. LOW CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT... LOWER CIGS EARLY SAT THEN VFR EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
SUNDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
MON/TUE... MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WHICH HAS CROSSED THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS DELAWARE
BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES WILL DIMINISH AFTER 8 AM OR SO, BUT
REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WE'LL CONTINUE THE SCA FLAG
ACCORDINGLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON/TUE.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS OFF THE COAST BUILDING TO AROUND 3 TO 4
FEET. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE
AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY SO THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 3 TO 4
FEET. FOR THIS REASON WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NJ SHORE WITH A LOW
RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONE ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND RECENT NEW MOON.
THESE FACTORS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TODAY, SO NO FURTHER
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTY
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE, INCLUDING THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-
451.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/RCM
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...AKL/OHARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL
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