986
FXUS61 KPHI 290152
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BEFORE
STALLING OUT ACROSS THE DELMARVA EARLY SUNDAY. THE FRONT THEN
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPROACHED THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED
EASTWARD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES OR THUNDER, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER.
A FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT IT DOESN'T CLEAR THE REGION,
STALLING ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW, SOME
PATCHY MIST/FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, A QUIET LATE NIGHT WITH LOWS 60S
NORTH, 70S CENTRAL/SOUTH.
ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH, PARTLY
SUNNY SOUTH NEARER TO THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PHILLY, BUT
FURTHER NORTH IT LOOKS DRY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING DEEPER INTO
THE 60S, EVEN TOUCHING THE 50S IN THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS MAINLY
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH NEAR 80 IN THE POCONOS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SUNDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE DRY. STILL MUGGY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND ADJACENT CANADA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AMPLIFY SOME AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. A FRONT WARM LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE (40-60 PERCENT) MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH AND
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN
AT 90 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS AND WITH DEW POINTS ON THE RISE,
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW, THE
FORECAST HEAT INDICES ARE JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(EVEN FOR THE THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON, WHERE THE CRITERIA IS LOWER THROUGH
JUNE 30TH). SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AGAIN, LOOKING
MUGGY AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S OVER
DELMARVA.
FOR TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY SOME AS IT OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
LATER TUESDAY. AN UPTICK IN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AND IF
THIS OVERLAPS WITH THE GREATER SHEAR, A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (DAMAGING WINDS) MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. THE DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. 12Z SUITE OF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THOUGH AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THIS WILL BE THE DAY TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 85-90F FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
WHILE IT WILL BE RATHER HUMID, EXTREME HEAT IS CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUMMARY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, OTHERWISE NO
EXTREME HEAT FORECAST.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO MUCH OF THE EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO
BECOME REINFORCED AS IT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, WITH THE LAST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S EXPECTED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC MAY TEND TO SHARPEN AGAIN AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDS ITS BASE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TO START WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO DROP MUCH, THE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SOME IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, LESS IN THE WAY OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE INSTABILITY LOWER AS WELL. GIVEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING CLOSER TO OUR AREA WITH TIME,
THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME IS
LITTLE TO NONE.
FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STILL BE IN
PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER OUR AREA. THE RETURN FLOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INCREASE
THE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT. THE FORCING FOR THIS, AS OF NOW, LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST AND THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
CHANCES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST, AND THE DEW
POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERALL, LOOKS
LIKE A NICE FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. NICE WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING, SO
WE DROPPED THUNDER FROM THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR ILG AND PHL WHERE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROGH 03Z. AFTER
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVE RAIN COULD END UP WITH SOME PATCHY MIST OR LIGHT FOG,
DROPPING CONDITIONS BACK BELOW VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS COULD SEE A STRAY
AFTERNOON SHOWER/T-STORM. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(30-50%).
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY (60-80%)
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH PATCHY
MARINE FOG COULD RETURN AT TIMES THRU TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
BIGGER CONCERN FOR MARINERS LIKELY WILL BE SPOTTY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE WEAKENS THEM AS THEY REACH
THE WATERS. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN DELAWARE BAY. WINDS SOUTHWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS OUTSIDE STORMS, WITH
SEAS OF 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (50-70%) LATER IN THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY, SEAS LESSEN SOME AND WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE,
HOWEVER THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 9 SECONDS WITH
BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THUS, WE'LL KEEP A MODERATE
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NJ
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET.
THUS, WE'LL KEEP A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NJ SHORE AND WENT LOW RISK FOR
DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH ONSHORE FLOW DECREASING TODAY, NO FURTHER WIDESPREAD TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ONLY SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/RCM/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AKL/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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