673
FXUS61 KPHI 041729
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
129 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TODAY AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMER, MORE
HUMID, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, GIVING
WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND A NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION.
A PICTURE-PERFECT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH
WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE WARMTH COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH 70S IN THE POCONOS. DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY,
AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL ADD TO THE OVERALL
PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD, SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS, MOTHER NATURE
WON'T BE SETTING OFF ANY FIREWORKS, SO IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL EVENING FOR THOSE HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES. AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE
TYPICAL RURAL AND OUTLYING SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. WITH MOSTLY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD LEAD TO WARM BUT COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
RATHER THAN THE HIGH HUMIDITY THAT IMPACTED THE REGION LAST
WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK AND GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THE THAT THE DISTURBANCE THAT NHC IS CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING MAY HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM ANY DISTURBANCE
AS HIGH WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE LARGER SCALE TROUGHING STARTS TO
DEVELOP AND WE'LL SEE SEVERAL WAVES THAT START TO DEVELOP. DIURNAL
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS PWAT'S INCREASE TO 1.8-2.1. WITH THE
HEATING DURING THE DAY, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SO THE ONLY THING MISSING WILL BE THE
TRIGGERS. ANTICIPATE THEIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION DAILY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER
THE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST WE'LL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS RATHER THAN
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL, THOUGH THEY SHOULD MODERATE SOME TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR & SKC. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. SEA BREEZE
POSSIBLE AT KACY, WHICH MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR & SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS,
BECOMING VARIABLE/CALM AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET WITH A SSE SWELL AROUND 2 FEET AND A
6-8 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, MAINTAINED A LOW RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET WITH A SSE SWELL AROUND 2 FEET
AND A 5-7 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, MAINTAINED A LOW RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJL/STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...DEAL/MJL/STAARMANN
LONG TERM...DEAL/MJL/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/DEAL/DESILVA
MARINE...DEAL/DESILVA
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