860
FXUS61 KPHI 042054
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMER,
MORE HUMID, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM PART OF
THE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE REMAINDER OF INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL REMAIN PICTURE PERFECT
WITH BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO
A CLEAR NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET, RESULTING
IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW 70S FOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING, THEN CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MID
50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE
TYPICAL RURAL AND OUTLYING SPOTS.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS MAY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RESULT FOR
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S, WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY OVERALL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COOL AND DRY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPERATURES RISE SUNDAY AS DOES THE HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE WARMER STILL FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT,
ONLY COOLING OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DISTURBANCE THE NHC IS TRACKING OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TO POTENTIALLY BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE REMAINS MANY
UNCERTAIN FACTORS, THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF PWAT VALUES INCREASING
TO 2.0-2.3 INCHES, THE STATISTICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS
REGION. HIGH WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE LARGER SCALE TROUGHING STARTS TO
DEVELOP AND WE'LL SEE SEVERAL WAVES THAT START TO DEVELOP. DIURNAL
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS PWAT WILL BE AROUND 2.0 INCHES. WITH THE
HEATING DURING THE DAY, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SO THE ONLY THING MISSING WILL BE THE
TRIGGERS. ANTICIPATE THEIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION DAILY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EVERY DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST WE'LL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS RATHER
THAN ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL, THOUGH THEY SHOULD MODERATE SOME TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S, ALONG HIGH HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR & SKC. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. SEA
BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KACY, WHICH MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR & SKC. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS,
BECOMING VARIABLE/CALM AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAINLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUT MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3
FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET WITH A PRIMARY SE SWELL AROUND 2 FEET AND A
6-8 SECOND PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER
PERIOD SWELL GROUPS BUT GIVEN THE LOW SWELL HEIGHT, HAVE
MAINTAINED A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES.
FOR SUNDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-3 FEET WITH A PRIMARY SE SWELL
AROUND 2 FEET AND A 6-8 SECOND PERIOD. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY,
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER PERIOD SWELL GROUPS, BUT
WILL CONTINUE A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES AT THIS TIME.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...AKL/MJL
MARINE...AKL/MJL
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