246
FXUS61 KPHI 052331
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
731 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMER, MORE HUMID, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY REMAINING IN
CONTROL, EVEN AS IT IS NOW CENTERED OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT,
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TOWARD NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS SETTLING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE, THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW 60S OVERNIGHT SO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT SEE THE WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY, THE RETURN OF INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S AS A RESULT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION WITH TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING DEW POINTS, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE REGION DRY BUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY SPARK OFF IN
DELMARVA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS STARTS TO STREAM NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE TROPICAL
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHAT TO EXPECT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS. HEAT
INDICIES FOR PART OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.
THIS SHOWS HOW WARM AND HUMID THE AIR MASS WILL BE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE
STRAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED TO EVEN AT TIMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY MONDAY. A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, THE COVERAGE BECOMES
MORE SCATTERED THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH IT ONCE AGAIN
BECOMING STRAY TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS MENTIONED, THIS WILL BE A TROPICAL AIR MASS WHICH WILL ALLOW PWAT
VALUES TO REACH 2-2.3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AT TIMES LOCALIZED
VALUES OF 2.5 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SHOW A
FAVORABLE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH AND TALL SKINNY CAPE. ALL OF THIS
POINTS TO THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING SUFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS THAT CAN POSE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SPEAKING OF CAPE, THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GROWING
INSTABILITY WITH MODELED VALUES OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. NOW, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WE CONTINUE WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LEADING TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 60S AND
70S, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE HUMIDITY AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LOCALLY CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP.
MONDAY...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START, THEN VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PREVAILING VFR WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS MAINLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 MPH. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET WITH A PRIMARY SE SWELL AROUND 2 FEET AND A
6-8 SECOND PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS POTENTIALLY BECOMING DOMINATE WITH SWELLS RANGING FROM
10-14 SECONDS. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO AT
LEAST MODERATE HOWEVER GIVEN THE SWELLS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3
FEET AND BREAKING WAVES ARE SMALL, WILL CONTINUE A LOW RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH.
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 2-3 FEET WITH A PRIMARY S
SWELL AROUND 3 FEET AND A 6-8 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SWELL, WENT WITH MODERATE AT THE MORE SOUTHERLY FACING NJ
BEACHES OF CAPE MAY, ATLANTIC AND OCEAN, AND LOW FOR THE
EASTERLY FACING BEACHES OF MONMOUTH AND DE.
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS
AND THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW
TIDES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...AKL/GORSE/GUZZO/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/GUZZO/RCM/STAARMANN
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