271
FXUS61 KPHI 081825
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WAFFLE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MOVE THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
PREV DISC:
THE OVERALL UNSETTLED, ACTIVE, AND TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA BUT WON'T ACTUALLY CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN BOTH THE SEVERE AND HYDRO DEPARTMENTS
ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.8-2.3 INCHES;
TALL, SKINNY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG; AND RELATIVELY
LOW UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO 20 KT SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION WHERE ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
ARE IN PLACE. THERE WON'T BE MUCH DRY AIR TO SPEAK OF IN THE
DCAPE DEPARTMENT, HOWEVER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER OR MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. AS A RESULT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH MOST OF OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISKS FOR
BOTH. AS A RESULT, A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THAT INCLUDES ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF CONVECTION, IT SHOULD STAY
DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER OUR NW ZONES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. IT
SHOULD THEN PUSH SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
BY LATE EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH TROPICAL DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON,
KEPT CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES IN PLACE EXCEPT ADDED MORRIS COUNTY IN
NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORY RUNS FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TUESDAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY WINDING DOWN BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD BEFORE TENDING TO
STALL OVER SOUTHERN NJ INTO DELMARVA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WEAK AND DIFFUSE AS FAR AS THERE REALLY BEING A TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRADIENT ACROSS IT. AS A RESULT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND
MUGGY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WILL BE LONG GONE, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS HUMIDITY WILL BE ACTED UPON BY DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BOTH WED/THU. IN ADDITION, A WEAK FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WILL FOCUS SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.
WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY BUT JUST
FOR DELMARVA WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS WILL ROUND OUT THE OTHER
PERIODS. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT LIKELY, THERE COULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WED WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.
READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST AREAS. APPARENT
TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER WITH ALL THE HUMIDITY
ABOUT. THE HIGHS FOR THU WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S/LOW
80S FOR THE N AND W AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PERIOD FROM THIS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
OVERALL RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SUMMER-LIKE PRECIPITATION, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUING HIGH HUMIDITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MOST DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONGLY
SYNOPTIC CUES TO ORGANIZE PRECIP, MOSTLY JUST SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR DIFFICULT TIMING/PLACEMENT. WE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH THE FORECAST WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. THOUGH, AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, IT
WON'T BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
AROUND PEAK HEATING TIMES.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 20Z, SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS. VSBY/CIGS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 15 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AS
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND TAPER OFF
BY MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3-5 KT. MODERATE-LOW
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
MARINE
MARINE HAZARDS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT COULD BRING
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY BECOMING MORE ALONGSHORE
FLOW AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-4 FOOT
RANGE DEPENDING ON BEACH ORIENTATION WITH A PRIMARY SE SWELL
INCREASING TO 4 FEET AT A 6-8 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THE TIDES
WILL BE AROUND LOW TIDE IN THE MORNING WITH THE INCREASE IN
SWELL, WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
EASTERLY FACING BEACHES AND MODERATE ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT WE WILL CONFINE THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO THE BEACHES IN ATLANTIC AND CAPE
MAY COUNTIES IN NJ WITH A MODERATE RISK ELSEWHERE.
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS AND
THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW TIDES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
HYDROLOGY
A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY
AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IF STORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
ONE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED BUT FLASH FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS/CREEKS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INSTRUCTIONS IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ008>010-
012>023-027.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ024>026.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>003.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
020.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/MJL
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
AVIATION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/MJL/OHARA
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
HYDROLOGY...
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