511
FXUS61 KPHI 081834
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
PREV DISC:
THE OVERALL UNSETTLED, ACTIVE, AND TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA BUT WON'T ACTUALLY CROSS THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION IN BOTH THE SEVERE AND HYDRO DEPARTMENTS
ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.8-2.3 INCHES;
TALL, SKINNY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG; AND RELATIVELY
LOW UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO 20 KT SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION WHERE ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
ARE IN PLACE. THERE WON'T BE MUCH DRY AIR TO SPEAK OF IN THE
DCAPE DEPARTMENT, HOWEVER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WITH ANY STRONGER OR MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. AS A RESULT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREATS FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH MOST OF OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISKS FOR
BOTH. AS A RESULT, A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN
ISSUED THAT INCLUDES ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF CONVECTION, IT SHOULD STAY
DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE COLD
FRONT OVER OUR NW ZONES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. IT
SHOULD THEN PUSH SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
BY LATE EVENING.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH TROPICAL DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON,
KEPT CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES IN PLACE EXCEPT ADDED MORRIS COUNTY IN
NEW JERSEY. THE ADVISORY RUNS FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TUESDAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY WINDING DOWN BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD BEFORE TENDING TO
STALL OVER SOUTHERN NJ INTO DELMARVA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WEAK AND DIFFUSE AS FAR AS THERE REALLY BEING A TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRADIENT ACROSS IT. AS A RESULT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND
MUGGY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, ALONG WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
80S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THESE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT
QUITE WARM, AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON TAP AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HOVER OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE GIVEN THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS, AND PWATS WILL BE UP TO AND
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING. WITH SB CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND 30 TO 35
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN HOW WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S OR SO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AROUND SUNDAY, AND THEN DEW POINTS LOOK TO COME DOWN A BIT FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY THAT DEW POINTS DROP BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MIXING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, POSSIBLY AROUND 90 IN
SOME SPOTS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS LOW. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NBM AND GO WITH 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
MOST OF THIS TIME, THOUGH THE NBM IS INDICATING 60 PERCENT POPS
FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND BERKS COUNTY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING THEN.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THERE ARE NOT MANY
FACTORS INDICATING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND
ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 20Z, SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS. VSBY/CIGS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 15 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AS
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND TAPER OFF
BY MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3-5 KT. MODERATE-LOW
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IF A GIVEN STORM PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
MARINE
MARINE HAZARDS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT COULD BRING
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THIS
PERIOD. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY BECOMING MORE ALONGSHORE
FLOW AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-4 FOOT
RANGE DEPENDING ON BEACH ORIENTATION WITH A PRIMARY SE SWELL
INCREASING TO 4 FEET AT A 6-8 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THE TIDES
WILL BE AROUND LOW TIDE IN THE MORNING WITH THE INCREASE IN
SWELL, WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
EASTERLY FACING BEACHES AND MODERATE ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT WE WILL CONFINE THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO THE BEACHES IN ATLANTIC AND CAPE
MAY COUNTIES IN NJ WITH A MODERATE RISK ELSEWHERE.
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS AND
THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW TIDES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
HYDROLOGY
A NEW FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY
AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IF STORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
ONE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED BUT FLASH FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS/CREEKS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INSTRUCTIONS IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ008>010-
012>023-027.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>027.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ024>026.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>003.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
020.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS
HYDROLOGY...
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