403
FXUS61 KPHI 101106
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
706 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT FOR
A TIME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS STILL DEVELOPING IN THE REGION EVEN EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE HIGH INTENSITY RAINS, LIGHTNING AND WINDS
HAVE LONG SINCE ABATED SINCE WE'VE LOST MOST OF OUR INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR TODAY, WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY, THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TODAY, AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL
ALSO LINGER. THUS, WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND WEAKER FORCING,
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A TRUE REPEAT OF YESTERDAY, WITH COVERAGE
GENERALLY LOOKING LOWER, STORMS LOOKING WEAKER, AND THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION LIKELY TO BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SOUTHEAST OF
I-95. IN FACT, WE ARE ONLY OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDER FROM
SPC, AND ONLY MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK FROM WPC, SIGNIFICANT
DOWNGRADES FROM YESTERDAY'S SLIGHT AND MODERATE, RESPECTIVELY.
THAT SAID, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OR EVEN A STRAY STRONG WIND
GUST CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HIGHS WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, THOUGH WILL DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 70S, IT
WILL STILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY, IF NOT QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY,
LET ALONE THE DAY BEFORE.
TONIGHT, WITH FORCING MOVING OUT ALOFT AND THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY, ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. IN ITS WAKE, WE MAY
END UP WITH SOME DECENT FOG COVERAGE ONCE CLOUDS BREAK. LOWS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO 70 OVERALL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, AND WITH CONSIDERABLY WEAKER FORCING ALOFT AS
HEIGHTS START TO RISE, WE'LL LIKELY SEE MUCH LOWER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION, MOSTLY FOCUSED INLAND WHERE THERE IS LESS OF A
MARINE INFLUENCE, AND MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BECAUSE
THE FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE CAPE VS UPPER FORCING. WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPS SHOULD NUDGE UPWARDS AGAIN A FEW DEGREES,
APPROACHING 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS, AND WITH DEW POINTS STILL
IN THE 70S, SOME SPOTS MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREE HEAT INDICES,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS AT NIGHT WON'T OFFER MUCH RELIEF, WITH READINGS
AGAIN AROUND 70 BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS
FOR STORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT'S
PASSAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
MONDAY, SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS DAY, ALONG WITH TEMPS
STARTING TO DROP A BIT COMPARED TO SUNDAY'S UPPER 80S. THIS IS
PROBABLY OUR BIGGEST SEVERE/FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE FRONT MOSTLY CLEARS US TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD LET A
GENERAL DRYING OCCUR, THOUGH SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN'T
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT A TRULY
REFRESHING AIR MASS, AND RIGHT NOW THAT DOESN'T LOOK TOO LIKELY.
IT IS JULY, AFTER ALL. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY REBOUND COMPARED TO
MONDAY THANKS TO GREATER SUN, RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90. AND AGAIN, WE MIGHT FLIRT WITH HEAD ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND. LOWS STILL
NEAR 70.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY CIGS, EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. OVERALL,
LOWER COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY AND TUESDAY, HOWEVER. WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT WITH A SOUTHERLY TENDENCY AROUND 5 KTS
AT TIMES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING MAY DEGRADE TO
WIDESPREAD IFR AS STORMS END AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG POTENTIALLY
DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA MAY RESULT IN BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IF A GIVEN STORM PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHORE PARALLEL WIND OF AROUND
10-20 MPH AND BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2-3 FEET WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE. WITH WIND DIRECTION MAINLY
OFFSHORE ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES, A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
IS IN PLACE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY SO WE'LL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS
AND THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW
TIDES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/RCM
SHORT TERM...AKL/RCM
LONG TERM...AKL/RCM
AVIATION...AKL/DESILVA/RCM
MARINE...AKL/DESILVA/RCM
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