112
FXUS61 KPHI 101733
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
133 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT FOR A TIME
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION BREAKING OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF
PHILADELPHIA WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES. LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS UNTIL SUNSET WHEN
WE LOSE SOLAR HEATING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OR
WIND GUST UP TO 40 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL BE FAIR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT HAVE RAINFALL TODAY,
OTHERWISE EXPECT A TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER.
MUCH LOWER STORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AS FORCING ALOFT REMAINS
WEAK AT BEST. THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS FROM
DIURNAL HEATING. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, AND WITH CONSIDERABLY WEAKER FORCING ALOFT AS
HEIGHTS START TO RISE, WE'LL LIKELY SEE MUCH LOWER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION, MOSTLY FOCUSED INLAND WHERE THERE IS LESS OF A
MARINE INFLUENCE, AND MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BECAUSE
THE FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE CAPE VS UPPER FORCING. WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE, TEMPS SHOULD NUDGE UPWARDS AGAIN A FEW DEGREES,
APPROACHING 90 IN THE WARMEST SPOTS, AND WITH DEW POINTS STILL
IN THE 70S, SOME SPOTS MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREE HEAT INDICES,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS AT NIGHT WON'T OFFER MUCH RELIEF, WITH READINGS
AGAIN AROUND 70 BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS
FOR STORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT'S
PASSAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS
MONDAY, SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS DAY, ALONG WITH TEMPS
STARTING TO DROP A BIT COMPARED TO SUNDAY'S UPPER 80S. THIS IS
PROBABLY OUR BIGGEST SEVERE/FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE FRONT MOSTLY CLEARS US TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD LET A
GENERAL DRYING OCCUR, THOUGH SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN'T
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHOUT A TRULY
REFRESHING AIR MASS, AND RIGHT NOW THAT DOESN'T LOOK TOO LIKELY.
IT IS JULY, AFTER ALL. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY REBOUND COMPARED TO
MONDAY THANKS TO GREATER SUN, RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90. AND AGAIN, WE MIGHT FLIRT WITH HEAD ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND. LOWS STILL
NEAR 70.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT WIND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA.
TONIGHT...VFR BUT MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PHILADELPHIA. LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA MAY RESULT IN BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IF A GIVEN STORM PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHORE PARALLEL WIND OF AROUND
10-20 MPH AND BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2-3 FEET WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE. WITH WIND DIRECTION MAINLY
OFFSHORE ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES, A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
IS IN PLACE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY SO WE'LL CONTINUE
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS
AND THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW
TIDES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/RCM
SHORT TERM...AKL/RCM
LONG TERM...AKL/RCM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/RCM
MARINE...FRANKLIN/RCM
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