430
FXUS61 KPHI 010055
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
855 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AND A CONSIDERABLE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN HAS ENDED, AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS OVER. SOME
RIVERS AND CREEKS MAY CONTINUE EXPERIENCE LOCAL RISES.
MUCH COOLER, BREEZY, AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW ON FRIDAY.
THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT
THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME BROAD CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS
THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GREATER FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST COULD END UP BEING OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES.
BY FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE ALONG IT.
DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UNUSUALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST
WIND BY MID SUMMER STANDARDS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE, AND NEAR 35-40
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, THOUGH SOME COOLER SPOTS
NORTH OF PHILLY COULD EVEN BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 60S ALL DAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE HOT, HUMID, AND STORMY WEATHER WILL FORTUNATELY BY FOLLOWED
BY VERY PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 80 DEGREES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S, PERHAPS EVEN MIXING OUT INTO
THE UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS. LOW TO MID 80S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES, THOUGH WITH SIMILARLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOWS IN THE PERIOD WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S AND 60S. ABOUT AS PERFECT AND PLEASANT AS MID
SUMMER WEATHER GETS!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WEEKEND'S PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS EXTENDED INTO OUR
AREA FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WE COULD START SEEING SOME
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, BUT SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING
TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. OVERALL A NICE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MID
SUMMER WEATHER SHAPING UP.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 02-04Z FOR KPHL, KILG, KMIV, AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING
MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THEREAFTER. OVERNIGHT, LINGERING
SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT
TIMES. NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
PATTERN, LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
DRIZZLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
FRIDAY...IFR CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR AND
PERHAPS LOW-END VFR BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-35 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, DURATION OF THESE SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A GALE WARNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE LINGERING TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
FOR FRIDAY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KTS AND SEAS 4-6
FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-30 MPH.
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN 3-5 FEET TO THE NORTH
AND 2-4 FEET TO THE SOUTH WITH A BUILDING NORTHEASTERLY 5-7
FOOT SWELL AROUND 7 SECONDS. HAVE CONTINUED A HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTY BEACHES
WHERE WINDS/SWELL ARE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO SHORE, WITH A
MODERATE RISK ELSEWHERE WHERE WINDS/SWELL ARE MORE SHORE
PARALLEL. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR MONMOUTH AND
OCEAN COUNTIES.
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH SHIFTING TO EASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FEET, WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 5-7 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS IN LENGTH.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND REMAINING LARGE SWELLS, HAVE PLACED A
HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
HYDROLOGY
THE FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE CREEKS AND
SMALLER RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ014-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...COOPER/MJL/MPS/STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...COOPER/MJL/STAARMANN
MARINE...COOPER/STAARMANN
HYDROLOGY...
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