779
FXUS61 KPHI 011057
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MUCH COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AT
TIMES EARLY.
BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY AS BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE, COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF TODAY ALONG WITH
AN UNUSUALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND BY MID SUMMER STANDARDS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, THOUGH MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY OVERALL. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE, AND NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S, THOUGH SOME COOLER SPOTS NORTH OF PHILLY COULD EVEN
BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 60S ALL DAY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE
THICK LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP SOME BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95 BEFORE SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
LESSENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S UP NORTH TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A NICE WEATHER WEEKEND IS FINALLY ON TAP FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
MID- ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND! HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY AND THEN WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND THEN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THIS
SUMMER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, AN H5 TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TURNING WARMER NEXT WEEK, AND THEN HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP
UP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...LOWER END MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL
TREND TOWARDS MVFR AND LOW-END VFR AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EARLY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR ACY. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WIND 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY IN THE
DAY (NEAR 25 KTS FOR ACY). HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR
EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR LATER.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD BE SCATTERED OUT AND LIFTED TO VFR BY
AROUND 00Z ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-35 KTS. WHILE
SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, DURATION OF THESE SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR A GALE WARNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
LINGERING TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO TONIGHT,
THOUGH ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA THIS EVENING ACROSS
DELAWARE BAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FOR
TODAY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KT ON SATURDAY, AND THEN SEAS
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-30 MPH.
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN 3-5 FEET TO THE NORTH
AND 2-4 FEET TO THE SOUTH WITH A BUILDING NORTHEASTERLY 5-7 FOOT
SWELL AROUND 7 SECONDS. HAVE CONTINUED A HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTY BEACHES
WHERE WINDS/SWELL ARE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO SHORE, WITH A
MODERATE RISK ELSEWHERE WHERE WINDS/SWELL ARE MORE SHORE
PARALLEL AND SEAS/SURF HEIGHT WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HIGH RISK. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES.
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH SHIFTING TO EASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS 2-5 FEET, WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 5-7 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS IN LENGTH.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND REMAINING LARGE SWELLS, HAVE PLACED A
HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE JERSEY SHORE AND
DELAWARE BEACHES FOR SATURDAY.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ024-025.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ452-453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MPS/STAARMANN
MARINE...MPS/STAARMANN
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