220
FXUS61 KPHI 012020
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MUCH DRIER AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE
INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
ARRIVING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
OUR BROAD OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AWAY FROM
THE COAST AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
A LINGERING SHOWER OR LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, LESSENING WINDS, AND CLEARING SKIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S UP NORTH TO THE MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.
FOR SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A LIGHT N TO NNE FLOW OF COOL AIR. SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A FANTASTIC DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BEING BELOW CLIMO WITH
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOW 80S FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, INCLUDING THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE A LOT OF SUNSHINE WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MORE OF A PARTLY SUNNY DAY.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING BACK INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY WITH THE HUMIDITY CREEPING
UP.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BUILDS IN AND
WE GET MORE UNSETTLED. FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER. COVERAGE WILL START TO
INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE START TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S EACH DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL START
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR SOME SPOTS, SO WE REALLY START TO
NOTICE THE HUMIDITY AGAIN.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BEGINNING WEST TO EAST. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNSET FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR ACY, BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 10-15 KTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING
MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CHANGING TO VFR TONIGHT, BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD BE SCATTERED OUT AND LIFTED TO VFR BY
AROUND 00Z ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25-30 KTS AND SEAS 5-9 FEET
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP
BELOW CRITERIA THIS EVENING ACROSS DELAWARE BAY WITH WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SEAS AROUND 5FT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH IN THE MORNING
WILL BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 3-5 FEET, WITH A EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL OF 4-5 FEET AT
AROUND 7 SECONDS. DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE SWELL,
HAVE MAINTAINED A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALL OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND
JERSEY SHORE.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND
10-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2-4 FEET, WITH A
EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS. DUE TO A BIT
STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES FOR DELAWARE BEACHES, HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. FOR THE JERSEY SHORE,
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER AND WAVES A BIT LOWER, HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ452-453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...DESILVA/GUZZO/MJL
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