707
FXUS61 KPHI 021716
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
116 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEND MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SUNNY MORNING WITH LOW
HUMIDITY CONTINUES.
THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY NUDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PLEASANTLY COOL
AND DRY AIR (COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING) TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERALL, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH MAY BE HAD NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.
WHILE IT SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY, A PASSING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, DEPARTING EASTWARD TONIGHT.
THAT SHOULD HELP ENSURE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO 80, WHILE LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S IN THE URBAN CORES AND NEAR THE TIDAL WATERS, BUT 50S
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AREA SUNDAY AND EVEN LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS IT TRACKS ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL KEEP A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH
A MORE NOTABLE BREEZE COULD BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND WITH DEW POINTS GETTING
AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S, NOT MUCH OF A HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUNDAY, THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUMMARY...GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE HUMID, AND SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION TO
START WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST, THEN SOME WEAK
TROUGHING MAY THEN ARRIVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATING TO OUR EAST OR NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH
IT MAY STILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OUR REGION. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY SUPPORT SOME WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE,
AND A POSSIBLE SURFACE TROUGH COULD EXTEND INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE MID-ALANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD HOWEVER STILL EXTEND BACK INTO OUR
AREA. GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS, A WARMER AIR MASS WILL BUILD
INTO OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD
OCCUR COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TENDING TO
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON A FOCUS FOR LIFT, SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY AS SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ARE ON THE LOW SIDE (20-30 PERCENT) FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME PLACES FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH/WEST LOOK TO MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S. A LITTLE MORE HUMID THEN ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE IT STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND INTO OUR AREA. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
REMOVED FROM OUR AREA, HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH MAY EXTEND INTO
OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH COULD THEN PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN IT AND THE LINGERING SURFACE HIGH TO PROMOTE SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT (NO CHANGES MADE FROM THE NBM POPS WHICH
ARE 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA). THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, AND THE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S RESULTS IN
ONLY MODESTLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. WINDS FROM THE NE WILL SHIFT MORE ESE
BEHIND A SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR I-95 TERMINALS AND
ACY/MIV, BUT MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OFF
OCEAN COUNTY, NJ. SCA WILL PERSIST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
ATLANTIC COUNTY SOUTHWARD THE REST OF TODAY. WIND GUSTS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA ALREADY. SEAS 3-7 FEET CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ALL MARINE ZONES EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS MOSTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONSHORE WINDS HOWEVER MAY
INCREASE FOR A TIME THOUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BUILD THE SEAS
TO NEAR 5 FEET ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND
3-5 FEET, WITH A EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL OF 4-5 FEET AT AROUND 7
SECONDS. DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE SWELL, HAVE
MAINTAINED A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT CONTINUES IN
PLACE TODAY FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND
10-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2-4 FEET, WITH A
EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS. DUE TO A BIT
STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES FOR DELAWARE BEACHES, HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS
NOW IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER AND
WAVES A BIT LOWER, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452-453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MJL/RCM
MARINE...DESILVA/GORSE/RCM
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