755
FXUS61 KPHI 022051
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEND MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FEW FAIR WEATHER AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING COOL, DRY, AND COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD AND GAIN BETTER FOOTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH MANY SHELTERED
LOCATIONS LIKELY BECOMING CALM. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE AFTERNOON MAY PREVENT RUNAWAY RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY,
BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SO WHILE THE CONSENSUS
FORECAST PROJECTS LOWS TONIGHT OF MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE, AREAS THAT SEE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT COULD EASILY COOL OFF ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A SPECTACULAR NIGHT TO CRACK THAT WINDOW
OPEN BEFORE HEADING TO SLEEP!
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,
LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN. LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GIVE US HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. THAT SAID, STILL NOT MUCH HUMIDITY AROUND WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S, SO SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COMFORTABLE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
MAINTAINS CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES GENERALLY EASTWARD
WITH TIME. A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT SAGS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARDS AS IT MOVES EASTWARDS/SOUTHEASTWARDS, THOUGH THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTHWARDS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
TERM. MEANWHILE, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS US, SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT REGARDING THIS
FORECAST. DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL. THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND NO OVERWHELMING CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR INLAND AREAS.
PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TERM MAY LEAD TO SOME TIDAL PILING AND RIP CURRENT
CONCERNS AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY BOTH WEAKENING
FEATURES AND STEERING BEFORE BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. A METEOROLOGICAL COL SEEMS TO SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE MORE ZONAL
PATTERN CAN TAKE HOLD. WHILE THIS SITUATION DOESN'T INDICATE ANY
MAJOR WEATHER ON THE HORIZON, IT MAKES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN
FOR THE LONG TERM.
AS THE COL WILL BE A TUG BETWEEN MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES,
THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FLEETING EASTWARDS/NORTHEASTWARDS AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND UNSETTLEDNESS ROUNDING THE WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION, LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH FEATURES MAY GAIN OR MAINTAIN THE MOST
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AND WHEN IF SO.
THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, FROM EITHER UNSETTLEDNESS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND/OR FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COULD SLOW AND
STALL AND COULD MAINTAIN A STRONGER INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THEN WHAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IF IT OCCURS.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. WINDS FROM THE NE WILL SHIFT MORE ESE
BEHIND A SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR I-95 TERMINALS AND
ACY/MIV, BUT MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE E TO ESE AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE
LIKELY FOR THURSDAY.
MARINE
SCA WILL PERSIST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY
SOUTHWARD THE REST OF TODAY. WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
CRITERIA ALREADY. SEAS 3-6 FEET CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ALL MARINE ZONES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS NE TO ENE ON SUNDAY AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET WITH A FEW 5 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE
FAR OFFSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES OFF OF SUSSEX DE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MARINE HEADLINES ARE
GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, SOME SPORADIC 5 FOOT SEAS
MAY OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...SCA FLAG ANTICIPATED. SEAS BUILDING 4-5
FT WEDNESDAY AND 4-6 FT THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND
10-15 MPH, UP TO 20 MPH AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2-4 FEET (UP TO 3-5 FEET AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES), WITH A EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS.
DUE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES FOR DELAWARE BEACHES,
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT IS NOW IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL OF THE
DELAWARE BEACHES. FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER AND WAVES A BIT LOWER, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
MODERATE RISK.
FOR MONDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-15 MPH FOR ALL
BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AROUND 7-8 SECONDS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2-3 FEET AT ALL BEACHES. AS A
RESULT, A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENT IS
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES ON
MONDAY.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452-453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...WUNDERLIN
LONG TERM...WUNDERLIN
AVIATION...MJL/WUNDERLIN
MARINE...AKL/MJL/WUNDERLIN
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