610
FXUS61 KPHI 030607
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
207 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEND MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH. UNLIKE SATURDAY, HOWEVER, NO
NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS ARE EXPECTED, SO
SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS, A COOL
START WILL BE FOLLLOWED BY A QUICK REBOUND OF TEMPS INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST, 70S AT THE COAST AND POCONOS, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 50S, 60S IN THE URBAN CORE AND NEAR
TIDAL WATER. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE OVERALL IS THAT BOTH TODAY'S
HIGHS AND TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL TICK UP JUST A SMIDGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND THE NIGHT CURRENTLY ENDING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
MAINTAINS CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES GENERALLY EASTWARD
WITH TIME. A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY SAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS
AS IT MOVES EASTWARDS/SOUTHEASTWARDS, THOUGH THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTHWARDS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TERM.
MEANWHILE, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS US, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT REGARDING THIS
FORECAST. DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL. THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY NIGHT, LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW AND NO
OVERWHELMING CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR INLAND AREAS.
PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TERM MAY LEAD TO SOME TIDAL PILING AND RIP CURRENT
CONCERNS AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES DOMINATED BY BOTH WEAKENING
FEATURES AND STEERING BEFORE BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. A METEOROLOGICAL COL SEEMS TO SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE MORE ZONAL
PATTERN CAN TAKE HOLD. WHILE THIS SITUATION DOESN'T INDICATE ANY
MAJOR WEATHER ON THE HORIZON, IT MAKES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN
FOR THE LONG TERM.
AS THE COL WILL BE A TUG BETWEEN MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES,
THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FLEETING EASTWARDS/NORTHEASTWARDS AND THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND UNSETTLEDNESS ROUNDING THE WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION, LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH FEATURES MAY GAIN OR MAINTAIN THE MOST
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AND WHEN IF SO.
THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, FROM EITHER UNSETTLEDNESS TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND/OR FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COULD SLOW AND
STALL AND COULD MAINTAIN A STRONGER INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THEN WHAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IF IT OCCURS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE E TO ESE AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE
LIKELY FOR THURSDAY.
MARINE
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS NE TO ENE TODAY SHIFT A BIT MORE SE TONIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH A FEW 5 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE FAR OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES OFF OF SUSSEX DE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MARINE HEADLINES ARE GENERALLY
NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, SOME SPORADIC 5 FOOT SEAS MAY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...SCA FLAG ANTICIPATED. SEAS BUILDING 4-5
FT WEDNESDAY AND 4-6 FT THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND
10-15 MPH, UP TO 20 MPH AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2-4 FEET (UP TO 3-5 FEET AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES), WITH A EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS.
DUE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES FOR DELAWARE BEACHES,
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL OF THE
DELAWARE BEACHES. FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER AND WAVES A BIT LOWER, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
MODERATE RISK.
FOR MONDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-15 MPH FOR ALL
BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AROUND 7-8 SECONDS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2-3 FEET AT ALL BEACHES. AS A
RESULT, A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENT IS
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES ON
MONDAY. SOME SIGNAL EXISTS THAT SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER,
WHICH COULD PROMPT A FUTURE REVISION TO A HIGH RISK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THIS CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...WUNDERLIN
LONG TERM...WUNDERLIN
AVIATION...RCM/WUNDERLIN
MARINE...AKL/RCM/WUNDERLIN
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