554
FXUS61 KPHI 031338
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY MEANDER THERE THIS WEEK, HOWEVER IT
COULD SEND SOME INCREASING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH. UNLIKE SATURDAY, HOWEVER, NO
NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS ARE EXPECTED, SO
SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS, A COOL
START WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK REBOUND OF TEMPS INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST, 70S AT THE COAST AND POCONOS, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 50S, 60S IN THE URBAN CORE AND NEAR
TIDAL WATER. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE OVERALL IS THAT BOTH TODAY'S
HIGHS AND TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL TICK UP JUST A SMIDGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND THE NIGHT CURRENTLY ENDING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER OUR AREA WEAKENS TO START MONDAY,
THEN ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS IT
TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA, ALTHOUGH A MORE NOTABLE BREEZE COULD BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH DEW POINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR MASS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MAKING A
RUN AT 90 DEGREES.
AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY, SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE MID-ALANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST.
IT SHOULD HOWEVER STILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME PLACES FROM
THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH/WEST LOOK TO MAKE A RUN AT 90
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY PEAK
INTO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUMMARY...GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE HUMID, AND SOME VERY SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
INITIALLY BECOMES LESS DEFINED AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
RATHER WEAK, AND THEREFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EXTENDED OVER OUR AREA
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS MAY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING
THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH MAY EXTEND FROM THAT LOW INTO OUR AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY...AS SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
MID- ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BE MORE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD
HOWEVER STILL EXTEND BACK INTO OUR AREA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
SHOULD TAKE PLACE, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TENDING TO DEVELOP.
DEPENDING ON A FOCUS FOR LIFT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE. THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ARE ON THE VERY LOW SIDE (AROUND 20
PERCENT) MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE HUMID ON
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH REMAIN
EXTENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. A LINGERING BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH
LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IT IS NOT CLEAR
WHETHER THIS FEATURE TAKES ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OR NOT,
HOWEVER WHATEVER LOW IS PRESENT MAY TEND TO BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN
WEAK STEERING FLOW. SOME MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE NORTHWARD
FROM THIS FEATURE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY EXTEND INTO OUR AREA AS WELL.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE
FLOW/INCREASE AND A MECHANISM TO FOCUS FORCING FOR ASCENT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE NBM POPS WHICH SHOW
THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD PLUS A CONTINUED ONSHORE WIND, OUR
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN CHECK. THE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S, THEREFORE ONLY MODESTLY HUMID.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE E TO ESE AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS,
BECOMING N LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS NE TO ENE TODAY SHIFT A BIT MORE SE TONIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH A FEW 5 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE FAR OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES OFF OF SUSSEX DE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND
10-15 MPH, UP TO 20 MPH AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2-4 FEET (UP TO 3-5 FEET AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES), WITH A EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS.
DUE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES FOR DELAWARE BEACHES,
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL OF THE
DELAWARE BEACHES. FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER AND WAVES A BIT LOWER, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
MODERATE RISK.
FOR MONDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-15 MPH FOR ALL
BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AROUND 7-8 SECONDS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2-3 FEET AT ALL BEACHES. AS A
RESULT, A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENT IS
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES ON
MONDAY. SOME SIGNAL EXISTS THAT SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER,
WHICH COULD PROMPT A FUTURE REVISION TO A HIGH RISK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THIS CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/RCM
MARINE...AKL/GORSE/RCM
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