693
FXUS61 KPHI 031846
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY AS A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER CALM AND COOL NIGHT WITH A WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SO WHILE LOWS
TONIGHT ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AGAIN, WE
COULD VERY WELL COOL OFF ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
PERHAPS A 90 HERE AND THERE. WHILE WARMER, THIS IS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAZY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR
NOT THIS SMOKE AND HAZE REACHES THE SURFACE, BUT IF THE HAZE IS
THICK ENOUGH ALOFT, WE COULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE AND THEREFORE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, BUT BUILDS WELL TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. EVEN
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW, TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 FOR SOME AREAS. A PRECIPITATION-
FREE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW, POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER, AND LOWERING THICKNESSES, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO LOW BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE BIG QUESTIONS MARK FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
POSSIBLE NORTHERN DIRECTION IT COULD TAKE. DUE TO THE VARYING MODELS
SOLUTIONS, WE DO NOT PLAN TO STRAY FROM THE NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE E TO ESE AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS,
BECOMING N LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
SOME HAZE ALOFT POSSIBLE FROM SMOKE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL;
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM HAZE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
POSSIBLE NEAR MVFR CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF
THE NE TONIGHT TURNING SE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. A
FEW WAVES MAY NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SEAS 5+ FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH TO AROUND
10-15 MPH, UP TO 20 MPH AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 2-4 FEET (UP TO 3-5 FEET AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES), WITH A EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT AROUND 7 SECONDS.
DUE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES FOR DELAWARE BEACHES,
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL OF THE
DELAWARE BEACHES. FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER AND WAVES A BIT LOWER, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
MODERATE RISK.
FOR MONDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-15 MPH FOR ALL
BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AROUND 7-8 SECONDS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2-3 FEET AT ALL BEACHES. AS A
RESULT, A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENT IS
FORECAST FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES ON
MONDAY. SOME SIGNAL EXISTS THAT SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER,
WHICH COULD PROMPT A FUTURE REVISION TO A HIGH RISK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THIS CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...MJL/ROBERTSON
MARINE...MJL/ROBERTSON
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