682
FXUS61 KPHI 032324
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
724 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY AS A POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OR SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER CALM AND COOL NIGHT WITH A WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SO WHILE LOWS
TONIGHT ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AGAIN, WE
COULD VERY WELL COOL OFF ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
PERHAPS A 90 HERE AND THERE. WHILE WARMER, THIS IS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAZY SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR
NOT THIS SMOKE AND HAZE REACHES THE SURFACE, BUT IF THE HAZE IS
THICK ENOUGH ALOFT, WE COULD SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE AND THEREFORE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, BUT
BUILDS WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA. EVEN WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW, TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 90
FOR SOME AREAS. A PRECIPITATION- FREE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER, AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOW BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE BIG QUESTIONS MARK FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND POSSIBLE NORTHERN DIRECTION IT COULD TAKE. DUE TO THE
VARYING MODELS SOLUTIONS, WE DO NOT PLAN TO STRAY FROM THE NBM
FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KTS, QUICKLY DIMINISHING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. PERIODS OF CALM LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 5 KT AFTER 14-15Z. SOME HAZE ALOFT POSSIBLE FROM
SMOKE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL; LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM HAZE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER. POSSIBLE NEAR MVFR CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF
THE NE TONIGHT TURNING SE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. A
FEW WAVES MAY NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SEAS 5+ FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-15
MPH FOR ALL BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AROUND 7-8
SECONDS LOOKS TO RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 2-3 FEET AT
ALL BEACHES. AS A RESULT, A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RIP CURRENT IS FORECAST FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SIGNAL EXISTS THAT SEAS MAY
BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD PROMPT A FUTURE
REVISION TO A HIGH RISK, BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THIS CHANGE
AT THIS TIME.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...COOPER/MJL/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AKL/MJL/ROBERTSON
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