492
FXUS61 KPHI 040643
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
243 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TODAY, THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST RIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD
DRIFT NORTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION PRESENTLY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING TO OUR
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT ITS APPROACH SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN BUILDING HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
UNTIL IT APPROACHES, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PRESENTLY SHOULD
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, PROMOTING
SOME WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION, SO
TODAY WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY... HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST AND POCONOS, WHERE IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO 80 OR PERHAPS THE HIGH 70S. DEW POINTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE 50S, HOWEVER. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEW POINTS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD LOWS A
LITTLE MILDER, WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN THE 60S.
ONE CAVEAT TO ALL THIS IS THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
ENCROACHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA. HOW MUCH OF IT REACHES
OUR REGION STILL APPEARS UNCERTAIN, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ANY TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT ITS LURKING NEARBY, SO
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH ALSO TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL
HOWEVER BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA, CONTINUING AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.
GIVEN SOME RISING OF THE HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME PLACES FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH/WEST LOOK TO MAKE A RUN
AT 90 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY PEAK
INTO THE LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BUT STILL EXTENDS INTO OUR
AREA. SOME CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK
IN THE DEW POINTS (INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S). THIS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT AND INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP
INLAND, THE PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE MOST AREAS
MAY END UP REMAINING PRECIPITATION-FREE. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE STRONGER SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SUMMARY...GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE HUMID, AND SOME VERY SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN SOME RIDGING MAY BUILD OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN EXTENDED OVER OUR AREA RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHWARD GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY EXTEND FROM
THAT LOW CLOSE TO OUR AREA WITH TIME.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST, HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT MOSTLY AT BAY FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. LOW PRESSURE HOWEVER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS LOW, HOWEVER IT MAY ONLY EXTEND
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH TIME. SOME MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
NORTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
WEAK AND THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEPER
MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS WHILE OTHERS ARE MUCH
DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE NBM POPS
WHICH SHOWS OUR AREA AT 10-20 PERCENT (20 PERCENT MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS). GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BELOW AVERAGE.
SOME RIDGING MAY START TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEREFORE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, THEN MAY INCREASE INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS OR LESS. PERIODS OF
CALM LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WIND NE 5 KTS OR LESS, BECOMING SE THEN SSW 5-10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HAZE ALOFT POSSIBLE FROM SMOKE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE SURFACE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WIND SSW AROUND 5 KTS, TURNING E AGAIN LATE. IF
ANY SMOKE MIXES DOWN, SOME REDUCED VSBY POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF
THE NE THIS MORNING TURNING SE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET. A FEW WAVES MAY NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR OCEAN ZONES, ESPECIALLY DUE TO 5-6 FOOT SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH FOR ALL BEACHES. EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET
AROUND 7-8 SECONDS LOOKS TO RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND
2-3 FEET AT ALL BEACHES. AS A RESULT, A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENT IS FORECAST FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE
AND DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/RCM
MARINE...AKL/GORSE/RCM
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