786
FXUS61 KPHI 042019
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST RIGHT INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING BACK THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY AND PLEASANT MID SUMMER CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT,
WHICH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH BY LATE TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, STRONG AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE.
FOLLOWING A WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL
INTO THE 60S TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS LED TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, AND AIRMASS
MODIFICATION HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS WELL. SO WHILE NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS, STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
FOR TUESDAY, THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TODAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (NEAR
80 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND COASTS). WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WE'LL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, HELPING REINTRODUCE
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
SKIES A BIT CLOUDY, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AT
NIGHT, BUT COOLER DURING THE DAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE A TAD
WITH ONSHORE FLOW, INCHING BACK INTO THE MID 60S. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP INLAND WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING, BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN RATHER
LOW, THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. COOL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE
60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR A FEW MORE
DAYS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST, CLOSER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST, PROVIDING US WITH BETTER OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AS A RESULT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWING
SOME PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY BOTH DAYS.
INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST, MOVING FAR OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
CREEPING BACK UP. THIS WILL ALSO HELP OPEN THE DOOR TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A POSSIBLE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CREEPING
NORTHWARD, BUT THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND OVERALL EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE AROUND 5-10 KTS, EXCEPT REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
RDG/ABE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM BY
03-06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME RISK OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS, AND SEAS 3-4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR OCEAN ZONES, MAINLY DUE TO 5 FOOT SEAS.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TUESDAY, LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN EAST
AT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4
FEET AROUND 7 TO 8 SECONDS WILL RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO
3 FEET AT ALL BEACHES. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENT FOR BOTH THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
THERE WILL BE AN EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET OF 8 TO 9 SECONDS
WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE
BEACHES. IF WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A HIGH RISK AT THE JERSEY SHORE.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
101>106.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>019-
021.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...MJL/STAARMANN
MARINE...MJL/MPS/STAARMANN
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