891
FXUS61 KPHI 242359
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY PROVIDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER, THEN OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL NOT MAKE IT
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH ITS PASSAGE, BUT
MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON POPS AND ON COVERAGE. POPS MAY
BE AS HIGH AS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY. OTHERWISE, POPS WILL
MOSTLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE, AND NOT MUCH FARTHER EAST
THAN THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY, THOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE MORNING, DROPPING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
BY THE END OF THE DAY. A REFRESHING WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH IS ALSO EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT TO SEA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY, BUT MOST WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THIS HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION, BEFORE BUILDING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY,
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY CROSS THE EAST COAST LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A GIVEN SHRA, EVEN A TSRA,
WILL PASS OVER THE TERMINAL. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...FEW SHRA, EVEN A TSRA, POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY WILL PASS OVER A GIVEN TERMINAL. WILL
NOT INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS WITH 18Z TAFS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z IN FOG/STRATUS. LIGHT S WINDS, BECOMING
NEARLY CALM. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED FROM ERIN'S SWELLS. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED AGAIN UNTIL 2 AM, THOUGH SEAS MAY SUBSIDE
TO SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLIER THAT THAT ON THE NORTHERN NJ
OCEAN WATERS.
FOLLOWING SUBSIDENCE OF SEAS, NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT, TURNING
WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR MONDAY, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY SWELL
FROM ERIN WILL BE DECREASING, A NEW SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3
FEET AT 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARD
OUR COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET AT
7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IN BOTH OCEAN COUNTY (FOR BARNEGAT
BAY) AND SUSSEX COUNTY (FOR REHOBOTH AND LITTLE ASSAWOMAN BAY)
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
NEXT LOW TIDE THIS EVENING, BUT IF IT EQUALS OR IS LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS LOW TIDE, THEN THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, IF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PREVIOUS, THEN THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE MAY RISE
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL HOLD OFF EXTENDING THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE LOW TIDE PANS OUT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MPS/STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...MPS/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...COOPER/MPS/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/ROBERTSON
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