632
FXUS61 KPHI 250549
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
149 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY PROVIDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER, THEN OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IT WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS.
MILD AND HUMID THROUGH DAWN WITH SCATTERED LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY LATE
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT, THEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA, AND THIS WON'T BE
FELT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE MORNING,
DROPPING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. A REFRESHING
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH IS
ALSO EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT TO SEA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY, BUT MOST WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THIS HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION, BEFORE BUILDING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY,
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY CROSS THE EAST COAST LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING, THOUGH A COLD FRONT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WITH ANY SHOWERS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ACY, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
VARIABLE WINDS SETTLING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING DETAILS.
MONDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS NEAR 10 KT, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED FROM ERIN'S SWELLS AND SWELLS ARRIVING FROM
A DEVELOPING STORM OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED AGAIN UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT, THOUGH SEAS MAY SUBSIDE TO
BELOW 5 FEET AT TIMES ON THE NORTHERN NJ OCEAN WATERS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT, TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR MONDAY, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY SWELL
FROM ERIN WILL BE DECREASING, A NEW SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3
FEET AT 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARD
OUR COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET AT
7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IN BOTH OCEAN COUNTY (FOR BARNEGAT
BAY) AND SUSSEX COUNTY (FOR REHOBOTH AND LITTLE ASSAWOMAN BAY)
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
NEXT LOW TIDE THIS EVENING, BUT IF IT EQUALS OR IS LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS LOW TIDE, THEN THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, IF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS
HIGHER THAT THE PREVIOUS, THEN THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE MAY RISE
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL HOLD OFF EXTENDING THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THE LOW TIDE PANS OUT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MPS/STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...MPS/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...COOPER/MPS/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/ROBERTSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page