300
FXUS61 KPHI 250853
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
453 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOLLOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WILL STICK
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGHING LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IN
ITS WAKE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY MUGGY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING HUMIDITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING INITIAL CLEARING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AROUND
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS MORNING WILL MIX OUT TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
BY THIS EVENING, MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR LATE AUGUST.
FOR TONIGHT, THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE NIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY WILL REMAIN NEAR 5-10 MPH AT NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE AROUND THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S (CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, THE AREA WILL REMAIN
NESTLED WELL WITHIN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.
DURING THIS TIME, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS. LOW TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL, A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AS A
SUBTLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TRACKING IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
FOR NOW, DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, HOWEVER THE
OVERALL NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD LACK ANY REAL MOISTURE. AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES, AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND
SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DRY FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING, THOUGH A COLD FRONT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WITH ANY SHOWERS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ACY, WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. VARIABLE
WINDS SETTLING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING DETAILS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KT, INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-6 FEET DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SWELLS FROM OFFSHORE STORMS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEAS, THOUGH
SEAS MAY SUBSIDE AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND
10-15 KTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT, THOUGH ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME ZONES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET. FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY SWELL
FROM ERIN WILL BE DECREASING, A NEW SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND
3-4 FEET AT 10-12 SECONDS IN LENGTH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
TOWARD OUR COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET
AT 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRAIN OUT OF THE BACK BAYS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN BARNEGAT BAY IN NEW JERSEY, REHOBOTH AND LITTLE
ASSAWOMAN BAYS IN DELAWARE WITH TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE OFFSHORE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT, LIKELY ALLOWING A FASTER DRAINAGE OF
WATER OUT OF THE BAYS.
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/STAARMANN
MARINE...DESILVA/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI
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