134
FXUS61 KPHI 251037
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOLLOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT
WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGHING LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
RAMPING UP IN ITS WAKE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY MUGGY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING HUMIDITY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING INITIAL CLEARING. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
MORNING WILL MIX OUT TO AROUND 50 DEGREES BY THIS EVENING,
MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR LATE AUGUST.
FOR TONIGHT, THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE SOME INTO
THE NIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5-10 MPH AND NOT GO COMPLETELY
CALM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S (CLOSER TO 50
DEGREES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, THE AREA WILL
REMAIN NESTLED WELL WITHIN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
DURING THIS TIME, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERALL, A PLEASANT STRETCH OF LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AS A
SUBTLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TRACKING IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW, DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES,
HOWEVER THE OVERALL NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD LACK ANY REAL
MOISTURE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DRY FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR, THOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH 14Z
OR SO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 5-10 KTS, INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-6 FEET DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SWELLS FROM OFFSHORE STORMS. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
ELEVATED SEAS, THOUGH SEAS MAY SUBSIDE AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFTING
WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, THOUGH ANOTHER
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME ZONES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET.
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY SWELL
FROM ERIN WILL BE DECREASING, A NEW SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND
3-4 FEET AT 10-12 SECONDS IN LENGTH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
TOWARD OUR COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET
AT 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRAIN OUT OF THE BACK BAYS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN BARNEGAT BAY IN NEW JERSEY, REHOBOTH AND LITTLE
ASSAWOMAN BAYS IN DELAWARE WITH TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE OFFSHORE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT, LIKELY ALLOWING A FASTER DRAINAGE OF
WATER OUT OF THE BAYS.
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/STAARMANN
MARINE...DESILVA/STAARMANN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DESILVA
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