191
FXUS61 KPHI 251726
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
126 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
ITS WAKE DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ON WEST TO NW
WINDS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT 70S OVER THE POCONO PLATEAU. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT, THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE SOME INTO THE
NIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5-10 MPH OR SO AND NOT GO COMPLETELY
CALM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S (CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO OUR WEST WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXCEPT LOW TO
MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NW NJ. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BY
AUGUST STANDARDS SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH FOR WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPOTTY LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVER THE POCONOS AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, THE AREA WILL
REMAIN NESTLED WELL WITHIN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
DURING THIS TIME, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERALL, A PLEASANT STRETCH OF LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST AS A
SUBTLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TRACKING IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW, DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES,
HOWEVER THE OVERALL NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD LACK ANY REAL
MOISTURE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DRY FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN
CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT. W/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-6 FEET DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SWELLS FROM OFFSHORE STORMS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEAS, THOUGH
SEAS MAY SUBSIDE AT TIMES. WINDS SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO WNW
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, THOUGH
ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME ZONES.
FOR TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND NW WINDS
SHIFTING TO SW WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...
OUTLOOK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET.
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY SWELL
FROM ERIN WILL BE DECREASING, A NEW SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND
3-4 FEET AT 10-12 SECONDS IN LENGTH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
TOWARD OUR COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY.
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET
AT 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRAIN OUT OF THE BACK BAYS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN BARNEGAT BAY IN NEW JERSEY, REHOBOTH AND LITTLE
ASSAWOMAN BAYS IN DELAWARE WITH TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE OFFSHORE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT, LIKELY ALLOWING A FASTER DRAINAGE OF
WATER OUT OF THE BAYS.
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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