383
FXUS61 KPHI 252330
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
730 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
IN ITS WAKE DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ON
WEST TO NW WINDS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT 70S OVER THE POCONO
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT, THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE SOME INTO
THE NIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 5-10 MPH OR SO AND NOT GO
COMPLETELY CALM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S (CLOSER
TO 50 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO OUR WEST WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NW NJ.
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BY AUGUST STANDARDS SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE. THE ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
FEW SPOTTY LATE DAY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE POCONOS AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, THE AREA WILL
REMAIN NESTLED WELL WITHIN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
DURING THIS TIME, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERALL, A PLEASANT STRETCH OF LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WE STAY DRY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH JUST CLOUDS INCREASING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, SO
POPS WERE CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. EITHER WAY, SHOWERS
AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IF THE COLD FRONT
IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT FULLY PASS THROUGH UNTIL THE SECOND HALF
OF FRIDAY, THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
BEYOND THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND LEADING TO A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-6 FEET DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SWELLS FROM OFFSHORE STORMS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ELEVATED SEAS, THOUGH
SEAS MAY SUBSIDE AT TIMES. WINDS SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO WNW
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, THOUGH
ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME ZONES.
FOR TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND NW WINDS
SHIFTING TO SW WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3
FEET. FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TUESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET
AT 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
1-2 FEET WITH A FEW 3 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE NORTH. EASTERLY SWELL
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 1-2 FEET AROUND 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MARGINALLY HIGHER SEAS AND SWELL FOR COASTAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTH, SO WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THIS REGION
WITH A LOW RISK FOR COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ AND SUSSEX DE.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/GUZZO
LONG TERM...DESILVA/GUZZO
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page