563
FXUS61 KPHI 260510
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
110 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A VERY WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION PRESENTLY, KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PLEASANT
START TO THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM PLEASANTLY UNDER OUR MID-APRIL SUN ANGLE (YES, I SAID THAT
RIGHT). ONE MINOR FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ACCOMPANYING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND CROSS THIS EVENING. CAMS GUIDANCE WANTS
TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH IT, SO CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE THEM OUT, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-95, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CLOUD BUILD-UP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THESE READINGS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST, WHEN MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S STILL.
TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL FADE OUT AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND INSOLATION DIMINISHES, THOUGH UPPER TROUGHING WILL ACTUALLY
BE INCREASING. ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY N AND W SHOULD
DISSIPATE, WITH LOWS ENDING UP IN THE HIGH 40S POCONOS, 50S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE, EXCPET NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND NEAR
TIDAL WATERS. AS WITH THE DAYTIME HIGHS, THESE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST REGIONAL NORMALS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW-MID 60S FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, AS IT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, THE AREA WILL
REMAIN NESTLED WELL WITHIN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
DURING THIS TIME, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERALL, A PLEASANT STRETCH OF LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WE STAY DRY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH JUST CLOUDS INCREASING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, SO
POPS WERE CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. EITHER WAY, SHOWERS
AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IF THE COLD FRONT
IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT FULLY PASS THROUGH UNTIL THE SECOND HALF
OF FRIDAY, THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
BEYOND THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND LEADING TO A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR KRDG/KABE, BUT
CONFIDENCE STILL A LITTLE LOW TO ADD TO TAFS. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND NW
WINDS SHIFTING TO SW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS,
SHIFTING BACK NW TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3
FEET. FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2-3 FEET
AT 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
1-2 FEET WITH A FEW 3 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE NORTH. EASTERLY SWELL
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 1-2 FEET AROUND 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MARGINALLY HIGHER SEAS AND SWELL FOR COASTAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTH, SO WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THIS REGION
WITH A LOW RISK FOR COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ AND SUSSEX DE.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/GUZZO
LONG TERM...DESILVA/GUZZO
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/RCM
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