432
FXUS61 KPHI 280704
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
304 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
CROSSES OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE NORTH AROUND THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE BEST DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK ARE BEHIND US, AT LEAST WEATHER-
WISE. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND TODAY, ALONG WITH A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. IT WON'T BE FULLY
CLOUDY, BUT THE SKY WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS BLUE THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS (ASIDE FROM THE CUMULUS WE HAD). DESPITE THE FILTERED
SUN AND CHILLY START, THE WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES, LIKELY
TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE FOR LATE
AUGUST.
TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND
SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES SPOTTY ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
BUT ODDS OF THIS LOOK LOW RIGHT NOW, SO KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF NW NJ AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE SHORE. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP LOWS NOTABLY MILDER TONIGHT THAN THIS
MORNING, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING IN THE 60S, WITH THE REST
OF THE REGION (LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ/POCONOS) MAINLY IN THE
MID- UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY START TO ARRIVE
BY LATER AT NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE RETURN
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERALL THOUGH, THE MOISTURE
RETURN DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT ROBUST AND THE MAIN FORCING SLIDING BY
TO OUR NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS STARTING TO ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE
(BELOW AVERAGE).
FOR FRIDAY, A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH, WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EVOLVING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
TIMING MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING AND THUS
LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE
RETURN IS NOT ALL THAT ROBUST AND WITH THE STRONGER FORCING SLIDING
BY TO OUR NORTH, THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER IS ON THE LOW
SIDE (20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY JUST FOR OUR EASTERN / NE ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE, AND DEW POINTS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WELL INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING AGAIN BY LATE
DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY LINGER TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY BUT OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED
BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. MEANWHILE, BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO
DAYS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.
BEYOND NEXT MONDAY, THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS
THE 0Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE SE COAST AND THEN MOVING NORTH. IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR THE AREA WOULD TURN RAINY AND GUSTY FOR A TIME
AROUND ABOUT NEXT TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND THE GEM KEEP THE AREA DRY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WE CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE NBM WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA MAINLY DRY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POPS AROUND 10 TO 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND IF NOT A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...VFR WITH WNW WIND 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS LOOK TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR WITH A SW WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. A SEA- BREEZE AT KACY AND KMIV COULD
RESULT IN MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH A SW WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT, SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FEET WHILE THE WIND WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW WAVES UP TO 5 FEET
ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE ON MORE PERSISTENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS LOW, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
1-2 FEET WITH A FEW 3 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE NORTH. EASTERLY SWELL
WILL BE AROUND 1-2 FEET AROUND 7-9 SECONDS IN LENGTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MARGINALLY HIGHER SEAS AND SWELL FOR COASTAL ATLANTIC
AND NORTH, SO WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THIS REGION WITH A
LOW RISK FOR COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ AND SUSSEX DE.
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE OUT OF THE SW TO WSW AROUND
10-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 1-2 FEET EVERY 7 TO
8 SECONDS, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/RCM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page