891
FXUS61 KPHI 282103
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
503 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
IT IS ANOTHER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY AS THE AREA IS IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFORMENTIONED LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
CONTINUES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES SPOTTY ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
BUT ODDS OF THIS LOOK LOW RIGHT NOW, SO KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF NW NJ AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
NOTABLY MILDER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR AND S/E OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH
MAINLY MID AND UPPER 50S FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.
FOR FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
ALOFT AT 500MB WILL BE PIVOTING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AT
THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NW
TO SE. GENERALLY EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHANCE OF
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES, MAINLY OVER NE PA INTO NW NJ.
MOST AREAS WILL STAY PRECIPITATION FREE THOUGH AND EVEN THE
AREAS THAT GET SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE DRY
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH AND CLOUDS DECREASE (ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST), OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
MOST (MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NW NJ; WARMER
NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS).
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WARMER NEAR THE OCEAN AND
BAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR EVERYONE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERVIEW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE EAST WILL DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS TO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH AND ALSO THE TIMING INTO THE EAST. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG A LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SLOWED CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS
UPSTREAM ENERGY HANGS BACK LONGER. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS
SHOW AN ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BULK
OF THEM THOUGH MUCH WEAKER. THERE REMAINS MODEL VARIABILITY WITH
THIS GIVEN THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.
HOW WE'RE PLAYING THINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE'LL HAVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AND CONTINUE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. IF SAID TROUGH STRENGTHENS FASTER INTO THE EAST, A
SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP SOONER. ANY MOVEMENT NORTHWARD IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WE CONTINUED TO RIDE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) OUTPUT WHICH CURRENTLY HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA.
FOR THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AS A RESULT, WE'VE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, IT COULD
VERY WELL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GENERALLY SW WIND AROUND 5-10
KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY EXPECT WINDS
TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT MIV AND ACY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS GENERALLY SW WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
WEST- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT, SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FEET WHILE THE WIND WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A FEW WAVES UP
TO 5 FEET ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE ON MORE PERSISTENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS START THE DAY SOUTHWESTERLY
AND THEN SHIFT WEST THEN NW LATE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS 3-4 FEET EARLY IN THE DAY DIMINISHING
TO 2-3 FEET LATE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE OUT OF THE SW TO WSW AROUND
10-15 MPH. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 1-2 FEET EVERY 7 TO 8
SECONDS, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, WINDS TURN TO BE ONSHORE/SHORE PARALLEL, OUT OF
THE NNE BUT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 MPH. EASTERLY SWELL OF AROUND
2 FEET WITH A 6-8 SECOND PERIOD WILL RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF
1-2 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE. AS A RESULT, A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/KRUZDLO
MARINE...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/KRUZDLO
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