199
FXUS61 KPHI 290653
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
253 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK LATER IN THE
MORNING, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP, ALONG WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, AS THE FRONT CROSSES MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON, WITH BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN
NJ AND NORTHEASTERN PA. DURING AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS
SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY, WITH GUSTS
LIKELY IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL
LIKELY DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL BY LATE IN THE DAY, WITH MOST
PLACES LIKELY DOWN INTO THE 40S BY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER
ON. THUS, A DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THE AREA MAKE A RUN AT
80 WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NIGHT WHERE MANY RURAL AREAS DROP CLOSE
TO 30 DEGREES, THOUGH URBAN AND MARINE LOCALES WILL STAY MILDER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH AND CLOUDS DECREASE (ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST), OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
MOST (MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NW NJ; WARMER
NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS).
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WARMER NEAR THE OCEAN AND
BAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR EVERYONE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERVIEW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE EAST WILL DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS TO OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH AND ALSO THE TIMING INTO THE EAST. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG A LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SLOWED CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS
UPSTREAM ENERGY HANGS BACK LONGER. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS
SHOW AN ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BULK
OF THEM THOUGH MUCH WEAKER. THERE REMAINS MODEL VARIABILITY WITH
THIS GIVEN THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.
HOW WE'RE PLAYING THINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE'LL HAVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AND CONTINUE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. IF SAID TROUGH STRENGTHENS FASTER INTO THE EAST, A
SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP SOONER. ANY MOVEMENT NORTHWARD IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WE CONTINUED TO RIDE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) OUTPUT WHICH CURRENTLY HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA.
FOR THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AS A RESULT, WE'VE INTRODUCED SOME SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, IT COULD
VERY WELL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...VFR. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5 KT OR
LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASE TO
AROUND 10-15 KT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 KT
AT SOME TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING TO AROUND 5 KTS LATE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WINDS START TODAY 5-10 KNOTS, BUT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS START THE DAY SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN SHIFT WEST
THEN NW LATE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SEAS 3-4 FEET EARLY IN THE DAY DIMINISHING TO 2-3 FEET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE 5-10 MPH EARLY, INCREASING TO
10-15 MPH LATER IN THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. BREAKING
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. COMBINED WITH A WEAK
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 1-2 FEET EVERY 7 TO 8 SECONDS, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, WINDS TURN TO BE ONSHORE/SHORE PARALLEL, OUT OF
THE NNE BUT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 MPH. EASTERLY SWELL OF AROUND
2 FEET WITH A 6-8 SECOND PERIOD WILL RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF
1-2 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE. AS A RESULT, A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO/RCM
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GORSE/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO/RCM
MARINE...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO/RCM
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