782
FXUS61 KPHI 302005
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT AND MORE SUNNY SKIES FOR
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND
THEN TURN NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH MUCH OF
THE TIME.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR LATE AUGUST WITH LOW 50S
FOR THE SHORE AND I-95 METRO AREAS AND 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW LOW 40S
ACROSS MONROE/CARBON COUNTIES OF PA. HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SAT WITH MID/UPPER 70S MOST SPOTS. THESE HIGHS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO VACATE THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH. THIS BROAD CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MEANDER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MEANDERING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
US THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALL IN ALL, THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EACH DAY AND NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOW TEMPS AT NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 50S (WITH 40S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS AND 60S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED AS GENERALLY BENIGN AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPS MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, BUT OVERALL SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCLEAR WITH HOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL PAN OUT. MUCH OF THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SO FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF / LIKELY
SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT (POPS 30-60%). DEPENDING ON THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT, SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
DWINDLE WITH THE RETURN OF COOLER AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR. CLEAR SKIES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. HIGH CONFID.
SUNDAY... VFR. FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 13Z/14Z. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AFTER
THAT, WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS BETWEEN
2-4 FEET. FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHERLY WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME EASTERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS 1-2 FEET. EASTERLY SWELL
AROUND 2 FEET AT 5 TO 7 SECONDS IN LENGTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES.
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE BIT ON MONDAY TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH BUT PERIOD REMAINS 5 TO 7 SECONDS WITH ONLY
2 FOOT BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE. WILL KEEP THE LOW RISK
GOING THROUGH MONDAY BUT SOME OF THE NWPS RIP PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATE MAY BE NEEDED IF WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASING IN THE SURF ZONE OR ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...DESILVA/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DESILVA/OHARA
MARINE...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/OHARA
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