841
FXUS61 KPHI 310524
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING, WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US, WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF
NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA INTO FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, WEAKER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. LOW-MID 40S
ARE EXPECTED IN THE POCONOS. FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME AREAS NEARING OR
REACHING 80.
SKIES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO VACATE THE REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CUT-OFF FROM
THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BROAD CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN
MEANDER AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
MEANDERING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALL IN ALL, THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EACH DAY AND NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOW TEMPS
AT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S (WITH 40S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS AND
60S ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED AS GENERALLY BENIGN AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPS MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS,
BUT OVERALL SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCLEAR WITH HOW
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL PAN OUT. MUCH OF
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SO FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF / LIKELY
SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT (POPS 30-60%). DEPENDING ON THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE WITH THE RETURN OF COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR/SKC. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH PERIODS OF
CALM LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WIND 5-10 KT. A SEA
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AND MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS MIV AND ACY
DURING THE 19- 21Z TIME FRAME, CAUSING WIND TO BE EAST TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR. SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WIND QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS TO 3-4
FEET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS
BETWEEN 2-4 FEET. FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHERLY WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME EASTERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS 1-2 FEET. EASTERLY SWELL
AROUND 2 FEET AT 5 TO 7 SECONDS IN LENGTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES.
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE BIT ON MONDAY TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH BUT PERIOD REMAINS 5 TO 7 SECONDS WITH ONLY
2 FOOT BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE. WILL KEEP THE LOW RISK
GOING THROUGH MONDAY BUT SOME OF THE NWPS RIP PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATE MAY BE NEEDED IF WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASING IN THE SURF ZONE OR ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...DESILVA/JOHNSON
AVIATION...AKL/COOPER/DESILVA/OHARA
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/HOEFLICH/OHARA
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