921
FXUS61 KPHI 120527
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
127 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING THE WEATHER CALM AND DRY.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL, LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S.
ANOTHER SUNNY AND SEASONABLE SEPTEMBER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO STAY
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY, WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE POCONOS AND THE SHORE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS
OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH DOES AT LEAST RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AT
TIMES, WITH THIS PERHAPS MORE PRONOUNCED DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ONE OF THE MORE NOTICEABLE TRENDS WITH RECENT GUIDANCE IS
THE DRIER FORECAST AND NO REAL SIGNAL OF THE CLOSED LOW IN THE
UPPER-LEVELS FOR OUR REGION DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME THAT WAS THERE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WHAT THIS HAS
RESULTED IN IS POPS OVER THE WEEKEND BELOW 15% AND GUIDANCE
SHOWING MAINLY A SPOTTY SHOWER POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALSO SEEMS TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER BUT DOES WEAKEN A
BIT AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF ON
MONDAY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THIS
NOW CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO STILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT, POPS ARE BELOW 15% AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY ONLY
LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. WHAT SEEMS TO BE MORE MENTIONABLE
IS THE CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE
TIMEFRAME THIS FALLS IN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DUE TO
THIS, I STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM WHICH HAS POPS BELOW 15% DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD FOR HIGHS LOOK
TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS, FAVORING A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SEAS TO NEAR
5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. BREAKING
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF MAINLY 2-3 FEET ARE FORECAST. AN
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 7 SECONDS IS FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, AN EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AT 10 MPH. BREAKING WAVES IN THE
SURF ZONE OF MAINLY 2-3 FEET ARE FORECAST. AN EASTERLY SWELL
AROUND 7-8 SECONDS IS FORECAST. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT THE
GRADUAL TREND IS DOWNWARD WITH ANY TIDAL FLOODING AFTER FRIDAY'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO
NEAR TERM...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/MJL
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...AKL/GUZZO/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI
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